Weekly Industry Intelligence

每周行业情报

Week 46 Aluminum Industry Hotspots

第46周铝型材行业热点清单

November 9 – November 15, 2026

LME Cash-to-3M Premium Hits $147/t, Highest in Over 30 Years; Stocks at Lowest Since 1990

LME现货对三个月升水达147美元/吨，创逾30年新高；库存降至1990年以来最低

EN

Aluminium buyers are facing the most severe supply tightness in decades: on November 11, the LME aluminium cash-to-three-month spread surged to a premium of $147/t — the highest in over 30 years — after sitting in contango as recently as mid-October. LME warehouse stocks have fallen to the lowest level since 1990, with total inventories around 227,000 tonnes. Exchange data show that two trading entities hold warrant and cash-contract long positions equivalent to 60-80% of available LME stocks, and the Tom/Next spread briefly hit $31.73/t, the highest since 2021. The squeeze dynamics pushed nearby prices sharply higher before a pullback: LME aluminium closed at $3,078.5/t on November 11 (+$61) and $3,068/t on November 12 (+$58), before easing to $3,013.5 on November 13. The LME said it will use its large-position management rules to prevent excessive market control, while the futures curve signals supply pressure extending into 2028.

中文

铝买家正面临数十年最严重的供应紧张：11月11日，LME铝现货对三个月期货价差飙升至147美元/吨的升水——创逾30年新高——而就在10月中旬该价差还处于贴水状态。LME仓库库存已降至1990年以来最低，总量约227000吨。交易所数据显示，两家交易实体持有的仓单及现货合约多头头寸相当于LME可用库存的60%至80%，反映延期交割成本的Tom/Next价差一度升至31.73美元/吨，为2021年以来最高。挤仓行情推动近月价格急涨后回落：伦铝11月11日收3078.5美元/吨（+61美元），11月12日收3068美元/吨（+58美元），11月13日回落至3013.5美元。LME表示将通过大户头寸管理规则防止市场受到过度控制，期货价格曲线显示供应压力已延伸至2028年。

Inventory Roundup: LME Stocks Cover Just 1.1 Days of Consumption; China Social Inventory at 5-Year Low of 507Kt

库存全景：LME库存仅够1.1天消费；国内社库50.7万吨创五年新低

EN

The year’s inventory drawdown has left both exchanges and Chinese social stocks at historic lows. LME aluminium stocks stood at 227,000 tonnes on November 9, down 56% from the 512,000-tonne level at the start of 2026 — covering roughly 1.1 days of global consumption at 208,000 tonnes/day, versus 38 days of cover at the 2014 peak of 5.49 million tonnes. In China, social aluminium ingot inventories fell to 507,000 tonnes on November 9 — a five-year low — after a continuous drawdown of 980,000 tonnes (66%) from the April peak of 1.49 million tonnes; the November 5 reading of 521,000 tonnes was already a four-year low. Estimates of the 2026 global supply deficit diverge widely: Wood Mackenzie and a Reuters poll point to roughly 1.0 million tonnes, Morgan Stanley to 1.1 million, while Goldman Sachs sees a smaller gap of about 570,000 tonnes.

中文

全年库存去化使交易所和国内社会库存均处于历史性低位。11月9日LME铝库存227000吨，较2026年初的512000吨下降56%——按全球日均消费约208000吨计算，仅够约1.1天消费，而2014年峰值549万吨时可覆盖38天。国内方面，铝锭社会库存11月9日降至507000吨，创五年新低——自4月峰值149万吨连续去库980000吨（降幅66%）；11月5日的521000吨已刷新四年低位。关于2026年全球供应缺口的测算分歧明显：Wood Mackenzie和路透调查约为100万吨，摩根士丹利约110万吨，高盛则认为缺口较小、约57万吨。

India Launches Anti-Dumping Probe into Chinese Aluminium Extrusions; ALEMA Urges Scrap of 8.25% Primary Al Import Duty

印度对华铝挤压型材启动反倾销调查；ALEMA呼吁取消8.25%原铝进口关税

EN

On November 9, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry announced a self-initiated anti-dumping investigation into aluminium extrusion profiles, structures and related articles originating from or exported via China, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. The probe adds to the dense trade-remedy web facing Chinese extruders, coming just weeks after the US ITC final affirmative on Chinese van trailers. In parallel, the Aluminium Extruders Manufacturers Association of India (ALEMA) urged the government to abolish the 8.25% import duty on primary aluminium and introduce a 10-year duty-relief window, arguing that the current tariff structure raises production costs and undermines competitiveness — particularly for MSME fabricators. ALEMA noted that anti-dumping remedies against unfair imports cannot resolve the broader cost pressures domestic manufacturers face. Chinese extrusion exporters to India should prepare for questionnaire responses and consider the probe’s impact on 2027 order books.

中文

11月9日，印度商工部发布公告，对原产于或进口自中国、马来西亚、泰国和越南的铝挤压型材及结构件自主启动反倾销调查。在中国挤压材出口商面临的贸易救济网络中，该案是继美国ITC对中国拖车终裁后的又一重压力。与此同时，印度铝挤压制造商协会（ALEMA）敦促政府取消对原铝征收的8.25%进口关税，并实施10年关税减免期，认为现行关税结构推高生产成本、削弱竞争力——尤其对中小微型加工企业。ALEMA指出，针对不公平进口贸易的反倾销救济无法解决国内制造商面临的更广泛成本压力。对印度出口的中国挤压材企业应准备问卷应诉，并评估该调查对2027年订单的影响。

China October Unwrought Aluminium Exports 594Kt; Jan-Oct Cumulative 5.914Mt, Up 17.8% YoY

中国10月未锻轧铝及铝材出口59.4万吨；1-10月累计591.4万吨，同比增长17.8%

EN

China Customs data released on November 10 showed exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products reached 594,000 tonnes in October 2026, bringing the January-October cumulative total to 5.914 million tonnes — up 17.8% year-on-year. The pace of export growth continues to outstrip domestic output growth, underscoring the competitiveness of Chinese semi-fabricated products even as primary aluminium export channels remain closed by policy. Exporters continue to navigate the layered tariff landscape: US Section 232 measures, the ITC trailer ruling with December 17 final determinations approaching, India’s newly launched extrusion probe, and CBAM reporting obligations in the EU. Volumes are increasingly directed toward Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, while overseas assembly footprints absorb a growing share of tariff pressure.

中文

海关总署11月10日发布的数据显示，2026年10月中国未锻轧铝及铝材出口59.4万吨，1-10月累计591.4万吨，同比增长17.8%。出口增速持续超过国内产量增速，凸显中国铝加工材的竞争力——尽管原铝出口渠道因政策保持关闭。出口企业继续穿行于层层关税环境：美国232条款措施、12月17日终裁临近的ITC拖车案、印度新启动的挤压材调查，以及欧盟CBAM申报义务。出口货量日益转向东南亚、中东和拉美，海外组装布局消化了越来越多的关税压力。

Guinea Bauxite Exports Q1-Q3 Total 164.9Mt, Declining Quarter by Quarter; Alumina Exports Just 324Kt

几内亚前三季度铝土矿出口1.649亿吨逐季递减；氧化铝出口仅32.44万吨

EN

Data from Guinea’s Ministry of Mines and Geology show bauxite exports of 164.9 million tonnes in the first three quarters of 2026: 60.93 million tonnes in Q1, 53.89 million in Q2 and 50.10 million in Q3 — a quarter-by-quarter decline that partly reflects the export-duty adjustment and rail disruptions earlier in the year. Alumina exports remain minimal at just 324,400 tonnes for the nine-month period, underscoring how little of Guinea’s bauxite is processed domestically. The data frame the strategic context of the CBG refinery project, where US DFC due diligence was completed last week: the 2Mt/y refinery would begin converting a meaningful share of Guinean bauxite into alumina onshore. Meanwhile, the CBG-DFC financing signing before year-end remains the key event to watch for Q1 2027 construction start.

中文

几内亚矿业和地质部数据显示，2026年前三季度铝土矿出口1.649亿吨：第一季度6093.45万吨、第二季度5389.21万吨、第三季度5010.37万吨——逐季递减，部分反映了年初的出口关税调整和铁路中断。同期氧化铝出口仅32.44万吨，凸显几内亚铝土矿在国内加工的比例之低。该数据为上周完成美国DFC尽职调查的CBG炼厂项目提供了战略背景：这座200万吨/年的炼厂将首次把相当比例的几内亚铝土矿在国内转化为氧化铝。CBG-DFC融资协议能否年底前签署、2027年一季度开工，仍是关键观察点。

China Spot: Yangtze A00 Pulls Back to RMB 23,370-23,560 Range; Social Inventory Drawdown Supports Prices

中国现货：长江A00回落至23370-23560元/吨区间；社库去化支撑价格

EN

Domestic spot prices eased in early November alongside the LME pullback: Yangtze A00 averaged RMB 23,530/t on November 2 and RMB 23,370/t on November 5 (+20), with Nanhai Lingtong at RMB 23,840/t including tax on November 5. SHFE aluminium’s front contract traded around RMB 23,090-23,180/t, recovering 0.8% on November 5 to close at RMB 23,180. The market’s underlying support remains inventory: SMM-measured social aluminium ingot stocks of 521,000 tonnes on November 5 were a four-year low, falling further to 507,000 tonnes by November 9. With the traditional peak season over and downstream entering the off-season, low inventories and cost support are battling softening demand and choppy macro sentiment — a tug-of-war likely to keep prices range-bound in the near term, with capacity cuts providing a floor.

中文

国内现货价格11月初随伦铝回落：长江A00铝11月2日均价23530元/吨，11月5日报23370元/吨（涨20）；11月5日南海灵通有票均价23840元/吨。沪铝主力合约在23090-23180元/吨区间运行，11月5日反弹0.8%收报23180元。市场的底层支撑仍在库存：SMM统计的11月5日铝锭社会库存521000吨为四年新低，11月9日进一步降至507000吨。传统旺季结束、下游进入淡季的背景下，低库存与成本支撑正与需求边际走弱、宏观情绪反复相互拉锯——短期内铝价或维持区间盘整，产能压减构成底部支撑。

LME Responds to Squeeze with Position-Management Rules; Guangyuan Aluminium New-Materials Park Advances

LME以头寸管理规则回应挤仓；广元铝基新材料产业园推进

EN

Facing the most extreme cash-market tightness since the late 1980s, the LME stated it will apply its large-position management rules to prevent excessive control of the market, addressing concerns that two entities hold 60-80% of available stocks. Historically, such squeezes — most famously the Marc Rich episode that pushed cash-3M spreads above $1,000/t — prompted rules forcing large holders to lend positions, effectively capping backwardation. Market participants expect warrant-holding costs and borrowing fees to stay elevated into year-end, and advise end-users to secure nearby supply early. In industry news, Guangyuan City in Sichuan held a Q4 major-industry-project launch ceremony on November 11 at its aluminium-based new-materials industrial park, advancing local capacity in extrusion-based components — another sign of downstream aluminium manufacturing clustering in western China.

中文

面对上世纪80年代末以来最极端的现货紧张，LME表示将动用大户头寸管理规则，防止市场对两家持有60-80%可用库存的实体形成过度控制。历史上此类挤仓行情——最著名的是Marc Rich事件将现货对三个月价差推高至逾1000美元/吨——曾促使交易所出台强制大户出借头寸的规则，实际上限制了现货升水的幅度。市场参与者预计仓单持有成本和借入费用将维持高位至年末，建议终端用户提前锁定近月货源。行业方面，四川广元市11月11日在铝基新材料产业园举行四季度重大产业项目现场推进活动，加快挤压类零部件本地产能布局——中国西部铝下游制造集群化的又一信号。

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