Weekly Industry Intelligence

每周行业情报

Week 45 Aluminum Industry Hotspots

第45周铝型材行业热点清单

November 2 – November 8, 2026

LME Aluminum Dips to $3,040.5/t on Nov 3, Rebounds to $3,067 on Nov 4; Stocks at 228,750t

LME铝11月3日跌至3040.5美元/吨，11月4日反弹至3067美元；库存228750吨

EN

LME aluminum opened November under pressure: the November 3 session closed at $3,040.5/t, down 1.82%, after dipping to an intraday low of $3,017.0. The market rebounded on November 4, closing at $3,067.0/t, up 0.87%, with an intraday high of $3,087.5. LME aluminium stocks stood at 228,750 tonnes on November 4 (down 725 tonnes), of which registered warrants were 213,575 tonnes and cancelled warrants 15,175 tonnes. Positioning data as of the week ending October 30 showed investment funds holding a net long of 119,700 lots in LME aluminium, down 613 lots from the previous week. By November 6, market sentiment had swung decisively: a spot-market survey showed 95% of participants bullish on the near-term price direction.

中文

LME铝11月初承压：11月3日收盘3040.5美元/吨，下跌1.82%，盘中最低触及3017.0美元；11月4日反弹，收盘3067.0美元/吨，上涨0.87%，盘中最高3087.5美元。11月4日LME铝库存228750吨（减少725吨），其中注册仓单213575吨，注销仓单15175吨。截至10月30日当周，投资基金持有LME铝净多头11.97万手，较前一周减少613手。至11月6日，市场情绪明显转多：一项现货市场调查显示95%的参与者看涨短期价格方向。

China October Primary Aluminium Output Estimated at 3.8808Mt; Industry Average Cost RMB 16,052/t

中国10月原铝产量估值388.08万吨；电解铝行业平均成本16052元/吨

EN

Industry estimates released on November 6 put China’s October 2026 primary aluminium output at 3.8808 million tonnes — a notable pullback from September’s level as the NDRC capacity cuts take effect. Meanwhile, the average full cost of China’s electrolytic aluminium industry stood at RMB 16,052.01/t in October, according to industry cost-tracking data. With Yangtze A00 spot trading above RMB 24,000/t, smelter margins remain exceptionally wide — roughly RMB 8,000/t — which explains why quota compliance rather than economics is doing the work of curtailing supply. SHFE aluminium warrants fell to 54,158 tonnes on November 4 (down 1,968 tonnes), reflecting tight deliverable availability domestically.

中文

行业机构11月6日发布的估值数据显示，2026年10月中国原铝产量为388.08万吨——随着发改委产能压减措施生效，较9月水平明显回落。同时，据行业成本追踪数据，10月中国电解铝行业平均完全成本为16052.01元/吨。长江A00现货在24000元/吨上方运行，冶炼厂利润仍高达约8000元/吨——这意味着当前约束供应的是配额合规而非经济性。11月4日上期所铝仓单降至54158吨（减少1968吨），反映国内可交割货源紧张。

US Mulls Cutting Tariff on Canadian Primary Aluminium to 25%; China-Canada Trade Arrangement Extended to End-2028

美国酝酿将对加拿大原铝关税下调至25%；中加贸易安排延长至2028年底

EN

On November 6, reports indicated that the United States is considering lowering its tariff on Canadian primary aluminium from 50% to 25%, a move that would partially restore competitiveness for Canadian metal across the US Midwest premium market. In parallel, the China-Canada trade arrangement was extended to the end of 2028, with steel and aluminium market-access provisions carried forward. For North American supply chains, the twin developments reduce policy uncertainty heading into 2027, though Commerce Department implementing orders for the Canadian rate change remain pending. Canadian producers, who have borne the brunt of Section 232 escalation since March, welcomed the signal; traders caution that the timeline for formal implementation could still slip.

中文

11月6日报道显示，美国正考虑将对加拿大原铝的关税从50%下调至25%，此举将部分恢复加拿大铝在美国中西部升水市场的竞争力。与此同时，中加贸易安排延长至2028年底，钢铝市场准入条款同步延续。对北美供应链而言，两项进展降低了进入2027年的政策不确定性，不过商务部关于加拿大税率的实施令仍在 pending。自3月以来承受232条款升级冲击的加拿大生产商对此表示欢迎；贸易商提示正式实施的时间表仍可能推迟。

Century Aluminum Q3 Misses Expectations on Power and Operating Costs; US Smelter Economics Remain Challenged

世纪铝业三季度业绩不及预期，电力及运营成本形成拖累；美国冶炼厂经济性依然承压

EN

Century Aluminum reported third-quarter results on November 6 that fell short of market expectations, with electricity and operating costs weighing on margins. The result underscores the structural challenge facing US primary aluminium: even with the Midwest premium elevated by tariff protection, domestic smelters continue to struggle against the cost curves of Middle Eastern and Canadian producers. Analysts note that the power-cost disadvantage has persisted despite multiple federal support programs, reinforcing the view that new US primary capacity is unlikely in the near term and that growth will instead come from recycled aluminium — exemplified by ClearFlow Metalworks’ planned secondary aluminium casting plant in Kentucky announced this week.

中文

世纪铝业11月6日公布的三季度业绩不及市场预期，电力及运营成本拖累利润。该结果凸显美国原铝面临的结构性挑战：即便有关税保护推高中西部升水，国内冶炼厂在与中东和加拿大生产商的成本曲线竞争中依然吃力。分析师指出，尽管有多项联邦支持计划，电力成本劣势依然持续，这强化了近期美国不太可能新增原铝产能的判断——增长将来自再生铝，本周ClearFlow Metalworks宣布在肯塔基州建设再生铝铸造厂即为例证。

India NALCO Q2 FY27 Net Profit Up 28.1%; Government Pushes Aluminium Capacity Expansion

印度国家铝业2027财年二季度税后利润同比增长28.1%；政府推进铝产能扩张

EN

National Aluminium Company (NALCO), India’s state-owned aluminium major, reported Q2 FY2026-27 net profit growth of 28.1% year-on-year. The result reflects firm domestic aluminium prices, robust alumina realizations, and the government’s sustained push to expand the country’s aluminium value chain — from bauxite mining in Odisha to smelting and downstream fabrication. India’s aluminium demand continues to grow at double-digit rates on power-infrastructure, EV, and packaging demand. NALCO’s expansion pipeline, including the announced capacity addition at its Angul smelter, positions it as the flagship of India’s import-substitution strategy in aluminium.

中文

印度国有铝业巨头国家铝业公司（NALCO）公布2026-27财年二季度税后利润同比增长28.1%。业绩受益于坚挺的国内铝价、稳健的氧化铝变现，以及政府推进铝全产业链扩张的持续努力——从奥里萨邦铝土矿开采到冶炼及下游加工。受电力基建、电动车和包装需求拉动，印度铝需求保持两位数增长。NALCO包括Angul冶炼厂扩建在内的产能扩张管线，使其成为印度铝进口替代战略的旗舰企业。

Downstream Roundup: Kentucky Secondary Plant, Aisidi Mg-Al Auto Parts Base, Baise Pan-Aluminium Manufacturing Push

下游动态：肯塔基再生铝厂、艾斯迪铝镁合金零部件基地、百色泛铝件制造攻坚

EN

This week’s downstream developments highlight aluminium’s deepening role in manufacturing localization. In the US, ClearFlow Metalworks announced a secondary aluminium casting plant in Kentucky targeting automotive demand. In China, Aisidi announced plans to build an aluminium-magnesium alloy lightweight components production base (Phase I), serving the vehicle-lightweighting supply chain. Guangxi’s Baise city launched a six-month investment-drive campaign for its pan-aluminium advanced manufacturing base, focusing on extrusion-based components. Separately, Guangyin Tianyang obtained a product carbon-footprint certificate for its 7-series hard-alloy extrusion bars — an early mover in product-level carbon accounting that aligns with CBAM-era buyer requirements.

中文

本周下游动态凸显铝在制造本地化中的深化角色。美国方面，ClearFlow Metalworks宣布在肯塔基州建设面向汽车需求的再生铝铸造厂。中国方面，艾斯迪宣布拟投资建设铝镁合金轻量化零部件生产基地（一期），服务汽车轻量化供应链；广西百色启动泛铝件先进制造基地半年招商攻坚行动，聚焦挤压类零部件。此外，广银田阳分公司7系硬质铝合金挤压棒材成功取得产品碳足迹证书，成为产品级碳核算的先行者，契合CBAM时代买家要求。

China Spot: SHFE/LME Ratio 7.7; Import Loss Widens to RMB 1,959/t; Domestic Tightness Persists

中国现货：沪伦比值7.7；进口亏损扩至1959元/吨；国内供应偏紧持续

EN

Domestic market indicators continue to signal tightness: the electrolytic aluminium SHFE/LME price ratio stood at 7.7 on November 4, with import arbitrage firmly closed at a loss of RMB 1,959/t — effectively sealing off overseas supply as a relief valve. SHFE aluminium warrants fell to 54,158 tonnes, down 1,968 tonnes in a single session. With NDRC capacity inspections in their first week and winter environmental restrictions approaching, traders expect domestic availability to tighten further into December. Fabricators report that November processing-fee increases are holding, and inventory-holding strategies remain favored over year-end discounting.

中文

国内市场指标持续显示供应偏紧：11月4日电解铝沪伦价格比值为7.7，进口套利窗口深度关闭，亏损达1959元/吨——海外供应作为补充渠道实际上被封堵。上期所铝仓单降至54158吨，单日减少1968吨。随着发改委产能检查进入第一周、冬季环保限产临近，贸易商预计国内供应将进一步收紧至12月。加工企业反馈11月加工费上调已落实，年末持货策略仍优于折价出货。

China Factory

FOSHAN NANHAI WING HING ALUMINIUM CO., LTD

Building the Future with Aluminum Excellence

以铝之卓越，筑未来之基