Weekly Industry Intelligence

每周行业情报

Week 44 Aluminum Industry Hotspots

第44周铝型材行业热点清单

October 26 – November 1, 2026

LME Aluminum Tests $3,200/t; Stocks Fall Below 230,000t for the First Time

LME铝价测试3200美元/吨；库存首次跌破23万吨

EN

LME aluminum pushed toward the $3,200 level through the week of October 26-30: Oct 26 (cash $3,172.00/t), Oct 27 ($3,185.50/t, +0.43%), Oct 28 ($3,191.25/t), Oct 29 ($3,184.00/t), Oct 30 ($3,196.00/t). The October 30 close of $3,196.00/t is the highest since mid-September, up 4.6% from the October 9 low of $3,055.65 and 11.3% higher year-on-year. LME registered stocks fell below 230,000 tonnes for the first time in the current drawdown cycle, reaching approximately 229,500 tonnes on October 30 — the 180th consecutive session of declines without a daily build. The cash-to-three-month backwardation widened to $5/t, confirming acute nearby tightness. Trading Economics projects $3,150.80/t by quarter-end and $3,318.66/t within 12 months. The March 2022 all-time high of $4,103/t still stands 22.1% above current levels.

中文

LME铝价在10月26-30日当周向3200美元关口推进：10月26日现货3172.00美元/吨，27日3185.50美元/吨（+0.43%），28日3191.25美元/吨，29日3184.00美元/吨，30日3196.00美元/吨。10月30日收盘价3196.00美元/吨为9月中旬以来最高，较10月9日低点3055.65美元上涨4.6%，同比高11.3%。10月30日LME注册库存降至约229500吨，首次跌破23万吨，本轮去库存已连续180个交易日无一日增库。现货对三个月升水扩大至5美元/吨，近端供应紧张进一步确认。Trading Economics预测季度末3150.80美元/吨，12个月内3318.66美元/吨。2022年3月历史峰值4103美元/吨仍较当前水平高22.1%。

CBAM Transitional Q3 Filing Deadline Passes Oct 31; Non-Compliant Shipments Face EUR 10-50/t Penalty Risk

CBAM三季度申报10月31日截止；未申报货物面临每吨10-50欧元罚款风险

EN

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism transitional-period reporting window for Q3 2026 closed on October 31. Importers who failed to submit embedded-emissions data for aluminium shipments face penalties ranging from EUR 10 to EUR 50 per tonne of goods under the transitional penalty framework, and risk being barred from future imports once the definitive regime begins in 2027. Industry surveys indicate that approximately 85% of major EU aluminium importers completed filings on time, while small and mid-sized traders — who often rely on exporters for installation-level data — accounted for most of the delinquencies. For Chinese exporters, the deadline has concentrated minds: fabricators with mature MRV systems report being named as sole suppliers by EU buyers switching away from non-compliant competitors.

中文

欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）过渡期2026年三季度报告窗口已于10月31日关闭。未按要求提交铝产品隐含碳排放数据的进口商，根据过渡期处罚框架面临每吨货物10至50欧元的罚款，且在2027年正式机制启动后可能被禁止进口。行业调查显示约85%的欧盟主要铝进口商按时完成申报，而中小贸易商——通常依赖出口商提供装置级数据——占未申报的大多数。对中国出口企业而言，截止日强化了市场选择：具备成熟MRV体系的加工企业反馈，因欧盟买家转向合规供应商，他们被指定为独家供应商的情况增多。

NDRC Capacity Inspections Begin Nov 1: Inner Mongolia Smelters First to Cut, ~200Kt Annualized Offline

发改委产能检查11月1日启动：内蒙古冶炼厂首批压减，约20万吨年化产能退出

EN

Compliance inspections under the NDRC’s Q4 capacity management notice began on November 1, with Inner Mongolia smelters the first to act. At least two smelters in the region began shutting down cells exceeding their approved replacement quotas, taking approximately 200,000 tonnes of annualized capacity offline this week. Guangxi smelters are expected to follow in mid-November. The cuts are concentrated in older, higher-cost capacity, and Yunnan’s hydropower-driven smelters continue to operate at full tilt, partially offsetting the losses. SHFE aluminium futures rallied 1.8% on the week on the news, and spot premiums in East China widened to RMB 300/t over the SHFE front month. Analysts now see Q4 Chinese output landing near 11.9 million tonnes, down from earlier estimates of 12.1 million.

中文

根据发改委四季度产能管理通知开展的合规检查于11月1日启动，内蒙古冶炼厂率先行动。该地区至少两家冶炼厂开始关停超出核准置换指标的电解槽，本周约20万吨年化产能退出。广西冶炼厂预计11月中旬跟进。本次压减集中于成本较高的老旧产能，而云南水电驱动的冶炼厂保持满负荷运行，部分抵消了减产影响。受消息提振，沪铝期货本周上涨1.8%，华东现货对沪铝主力合约升水扩大至300元/吨。分析师预计四季度国内电解铝产量约1190万吨，低于此前预期的1210万吨。

China October Manufacturing PMI Falls to 49.3%, Back into Contraction; Input Prices Remain Elevated

中国10月制造业PMI降至49.3%重回收缩区间；购进价格指数仍处高位

EN

The National Bureau of Statistics released the October official manufacturing PMI on October 31: 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from September’s 50.1% and back below the 50-point boom-bust line. Both supply and demand shifted into contraction: the production index fell 1.9 points to 49.8 and new orders fell 1.1 points to 49.4, while new export orders dropped 1.3 points to 48.7 as Christmas-season orders, front-loaded in September, faded. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing attributed the decline to three factors: the post-holiday lull after Golden Week consumption, the seasonal transition of basic raw materials industries toward their off-season, and weaker consumer-goods orders. Notably, input prices remain elevated: the raw-materials purchase price index stood at 56.8% (down 4.0 points) and the output price index at 51.7% (down 2.3 points), reflecting recent softening in some nonferrous metal prices while still signaling cost pressure. The non-manufacturing business activity index fell 0.5 points to 49.7, and the composite PMI output index dropped 1.0 point to 49.7. For aluminium demand, the October print is a near-term demand warning, though capacity cuts and still-elevated input prices continue to support prices from the cost side.

中文

国家统计局10月31日发布10月官方制造业PMI：49.3%，较9月的50.1%下降0.8个百分点，回落至荣枯线以下，供需两端均由扩张转为收缩：生产指数下降1.9个百分点至49.8，新订单指数下降1.1个百分点至49.4，新出口订单指数下降1.3个百分点至48.7——圣诞季订单于9月集中释放后回落。中国物流与采购联合会将回落归因于三点：国庆黄金周消费后的平淡期、基础原材料行业向淡季转换、消费品订单走弱。值得注意的是，价格指数仍处高位：主要原材料购进价格指数为56.8%（下降4.0个百分点），出厂价格指数51.7%（下降2.3个百分点），反映部分有色金属价格近期回落的同时成本压力犹存。非制造业商务活动指数下降0.5个百分点至49.7，综合PMI产出指数下降1.0个百分点至49.7。对铝需求而言，10月数据构成近端需求警示，但产能压减与仍居高位的价格指数继续从成本端支撑铝价。

US-Canada-Mexico Trailer Tariff Countdown: Exporters Lock December Shipments Ahead of Dec 17 Final Rulings

美加墨拖车关税倒计时：出口商锁定12月装运，赶在12月17日终裁前出货

EN

With US Commerce final determinations on van trailers from Canada and Mexico due around December 17, exporters are racing to lock December shipments before potential duty rates take effect. Freight bookings on US-bound routes surged this week, with container rates on Asia-North America lanes up 8% week-on-week. Preliminary determinations have already confirmed that Canadian-assembled trailers using Chinese subassemblies are treated as Chinese products subject to AD/CVD plus Section 232 duties. Several Chinese component makers have completed the relocation of final assembly to Vietnam and Thailand, with first post-relocation shipments expected to reach US ports in January. Trade attorneys caution that post-final-ruling enforcement will focus on certificates of origin and substantial-transformation documentation.

中文

随着美国商务部对加拿大和墨西哥厢式拖车的终裁预计约12月17日落地，出口商正竞相锁定12月装运，以防潜在税率生效。本周美线舱位预订激增，亚洲-北美航线集装箱运价周环比上涨8%。初步裁定已确认使用中国组件在加拿大组装的拖车被视为中国产品，需适用双反税加232条款关税。多家中国组件制造商已完成最终组装环节向越南和泰国的转移，首批转移后货物预计1月抵达美国港口。贸易律师提示，终裁后的执法将聚焦原产地证书和实质性改变证明文件。

IAI: Global Primary Aluminium Output 6.55Mt in September; China 4.02Mt, Ex-China Growth Led by Middle East

国际铝业协会：9月全球原铝产量655万吨；中国402万吨，中东引领海外增长

EN

International Aluminium Institute data released October 28 showed global primary aluminium production reached 6.55 million tonnes in September 2026, with average daily output of 218,300 tonnes — up 2.3% year-on-year. China accounted for 4.02 million tonnes, while ex-China production of 2.53 million tonnes was led by Middle Eastern smelters, where year-to-date output is up 6.1% on the restart of previously idled capacity. Gulf producers continue to benefit from the combination of low energy costs and elevated LME prices, with Emirates Global Aluminium confirming that its conflict-damaged smelter remains on track for Q1 2027 restart after the $400 million repair program. Global annualized production now stands at approximately 79.7 million tonnes, against consumption estimated at 80.9 million — implying a market deficit of roughly 1.2 million tonnes for the year.

中文

国际铝业协会10月28日发布的数据显示，2026年9月全球原铝产量达655万吨，日均产量218300吨，同比增长2.3%。其中中国402万吨，海外产量253万吨，中东冶炼厂领跑——该地区年内累计产量因前期闲置产能复产同比增长6.1%。海湾产油国正受益于低能源成本与高企的LME价格的组合，阿联酋全球铝业确认其受损冶炼厂在4亿美元维修计划后仍按计划于2027年一季度复产。全球原铝年化产量现约7970万吨，而消费估计为8090万吨——隐含全年市场短缺约120万吨。

China Late-October Spot: Yangtze A00 Averages RMB 24,310/t; November Processing Fee Hikes Take Effect

中国十月末现货：长江A00铝均价24310元/吨；11月加工费上调生效

EN

Domestic spot markets closed October on a firm note: Yangtze A00 aluminium averaged RMB 24,310/t for the week of October 26-30, up 0.8% week-on-week, tracking SHFE strength on the capacity-cut news. November 1 processing fee increases of RMB 100-200/t announced by multiple fabricators took effect as scheduled, and billet processing fees in Foshan and Wuxi rose a further RMB 50/t on tight availability. Order books for solar frame and NEV profiles remain covered through December, and construction-system profiles saw their first sequential improvement in three months as fiscal-stimulus-funded projects restarted. Alumina prices firmed to RMB 2,880/t on Guinea supply concerns. With Q4 supply now confirmed tighter, producers and traders alike are holding inventory rather than discounting into year-end.

中文

国内现货市场10月末强势收官：10月26-30日当周长江A00铝均价24310元/吨，环比上涨0.8%，跟随沪铝产能压减消息的涨势。多家加工企业11月1日起加工费上调100-200元/吨如期生效，佛山、无锡铝棒加工费因供应偏紧再涨50元/吨。光伏边框和新能源车型材订单排至12月；受财政资金支持的基建项目重启带动，建筑系统型材三个月来首次环比改善。受几内亚供应担忧推动，氧化铝价格升至2880元/吨。随着四季度供应收紧确认，生产商和贸易商均选择持货惜售，不再年末折价出货。

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