Weekly Industry Intelligence

每周行业情报

Week 42 Aluminum Industry Hotspots

第42周铝型材行业热点清单

October 12 – October 18, 2026

LME Aluminum Rebounds to $3,141/t by Oct 16, Weekly Gain 2.8%; Stocks Extend Record Drawdown

LME铝价10月16日反弹至3141美元/吨，周涨2.8%；库存续创纪录新低

EN

LME aluminum recovered through the week of October 12-16: Oct 12 (cash $3,072.00/t), Oct 13 ($3,098.50/t, +0.86%), Oct 14 ($3,115.25/t), Oct 15 ($3,128.80/t), Oct 16 ($3,141.00/t). The rebound extends the recovery from the October 9 low of $3,055.65, gaining 2.8% over the week; prices remain 10.4% higher year-on-year. LME registered stocks fell further to approximately 238,600 tonnes on October 16, extending the historic drawdown to more than 160 consecutive sessions without a single daily build. The cash-to-three-month spread narrowed to $8/t contango, signaling tightening nearby supply. Trading Economics projects $3,150.80/t by quarter-end and $3,318.66/t within 12 months. The March 2022 all-time high of $4,103/t still stands 23.4% above current levels.

中文

LME铝价在10月12-16日当周回升：10月12日现货3072.00美元/吨，13日3098.50美元/吨（+0.86%），14日3115.25美元/吨，15日3128.80美元/吨，16日3141.00美元/吨。此次反弹延续了10月9日低点3055.65美元以来的修复，全周上涨2.8%；价格同比仍高10.4%。10月16日LME注册库存进一步降至约238600吨，历史级去库存已延续160多个交易日无一日增库。现货对三个月价差收窄至8美元/吨的正套结构，显示近端供应趋紧。Trading Economics预测季度末3150.80美元/吨，12个月内3318.66美元/吨。2022年3月历史峰值4103美元/吨仍较当前水平高23.4%。

Rusal Board Approves Continuation of En+ Heat Supply Contracts at Oct 12 Meeting

俄铝10月12日董事会批准继续履行与En+的供暖供应合同

EN

On October 12, 2026, United Company Rusal announced that its Board of Directors had approved the continuation of heat supply contracts with associates of En+, its principal power provider, in accordance with HKEx connected-transaction requirements. The contracts, originally dating back to December 2023, cover heat energy supply to Rusal Group smelters and form a critical part of the company’s cost structure. With governance uncertainty now removed, investor focus shifts to Rusal’s Q4 production guidance and its alumina self-sufficiency strategy (89% following the Pioneer refinery stake acquisition in India), which remains a key buffer against Guinea-related feedstock risks.

中文

2026年10月12日，俄铝联合公司公告，其董事会已根据港交所关联交易要求，批准继续履行与主要电力供应商En+关联方之间的供暖供应合同。该合同追溯至2023年12月，涵盖向俄铝集团冶炼厂供应热能，是公司成本结构的关键组成部分。治理不确定性消除后，投资者关注焦点转向俄铝四季度产量指引及其氧化铝自给战略（随印度Pioneer炼厂股权收购已达89%），该战略仍是对冲几内亚相关原料风险的关键缓冲。

China September Exports: Unwrought Aluminium and Products at 550Kt; YTD +9.2%

中国9月未锻轧铝及铝材出口55万吨；1-9月累计同比增长9.2%

EN

Data released by China Customs on October 13 showed exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products reached 550,000 tonnes in September 2026, bringing the January-September cumulative total to approximately 4.90 million tonnes, up 9.2% year-on-year. Export resilience persists despite the dense web of trade remedies: the US Section 232 structure (50% unwrought, 25% extrusions), the recent ITC final affirmative on Chinese van trailers (AD 130.86%/CVD 134.75%), the EU CBAM transitional reporting regime, and EAEU anti-dumping extensions. Exporters continue to redirect volumes toward Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, while processing-trade arrangements and overseas assembly footprints (e.g., Chinese fabricators’ European and Southeast Asian plants) increasingly absorb tariff pressure.

中文

中国海关总署10月13日发布的数据显示，2026年9月中国未锻轧铝及铝材出口55万吨，1-9月累计约490万吨，同比增长9.2%。尽管贸易救济措施密集——美国232条款结构（未锻轧50%、挤压材25%）、ITC对中国厢式拖车终裁（反倾销130.86%/反补贴134.75%）、欧盟CBAM过渡期申报机制、欧亚经济联盟反倾销延长——出口仍保持韧性。出口企业继续将货量转向东南亚、中东和拉美，加工贸易安排和海外组装布局（如中国加工企业欧洲及东南亚工厂）正日益吸收关税压力。

Guinea CBG Alumina Refinery: US DFC Financing Talks Enter Due Diligence; Bauxite Shipments Recover

几内亚CBG氧化铝炼厂：美国DFC融资谈判进入尽职调查；铝土矿发运恢复

EN

Guinea’s Ministry of Mines confirmed on October 14 that financing discussions between the Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée (CBG) and the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) have advanced to the due-diligence stage, covering the planned alumina refinery project that would be Guinea’s largest downstream investment. Meanwhile, bauxite shipments have recovered to approximately 8 million tonnes per month after the disruptions caused by rail outages and export-duty adjustments earlier in the year. The dual development — Western financing entering Guinea’s alumina sector while Chinese capital remains the incumbent — underscores the intensifying geopolitical competition over African critical-mineral supply chains.

中文

几内亚矿业部10月14日确认，几内亚铝土矿公司（CBG）与美国国际开发金融公司（DFC）之间的融资讨论已进入尽职调查阶段，涉及计划中的氧化铝精炼厂项目——这将是几内亚最大的下游投资。与此同时，受上半年铁路中断和出口关税调整影响的铝土矿发运已恢复至月均约800万吨。西方资本进入几内亚氧化铝行业、而中国资本仍是现有主导力量的双重格局，凸显了非洲关键矿产供应链地缘政治竞争的加剧。

CBAM Transitional Q3 Report Window Open; Aluminium Exporters Accelerate MRV Filing

CBAM过渡期三季度报告窗口开启；铝出口企业加快MRV申报

EN

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism transitional-period reporting window for Q3 2026 opened on October 1, with importers required to submit embedded-emissions data for aluminium and aluminium products by October 31. Exporters are accelerating MRV (monitoring, reporting, verification) evidence preparation: installation-level emissions data, default-values justification where actual data is unavailable, and third-party verification alignment. With formal CBAM certificate purchases scheduled to begin in 2027, the transitional filings are effectively a rehearsal for cost pass-through negotiations. Industry associations report that fabricators with ISO 14064-aligned carbon accounting are experiencing materially smoother customs clearance for EU-bound shipments.

中文

欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）过渡期2026年三季度报告窗口已于10月1日开启，进口商须在10月31日前提交铝及铝制品的隐含碳排放数据。出口企业正加快MRV（监测、报告、核查）证据准备：装置级排放数据、实际数据不可得时的默认值论证、以及与第三方核查的衔接。随着2027年CBAM证书正式购买启动，过渡期申报实际上是成本传导谈判的预演。行业协会反馈，已建立ISO 14064对齐碳核算体系的加工企业，其对欧货物通关明显更为顺畅。

China September Aluminium Output 4.02Mt (+3.1% YoY); Nine-Month Total 35.8Mt Nears 45Mt Cap

中国9月电解铝产量402万吨（+3.1%）；前三季度累计3580万吨逼近4500万吨上限

EN

Data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 15 showed China’s electrolytic aluminium output reached 4.02 million tonnes in September 2026, up 3.1% year-on-year, bringing the January-September cumulative total to 35.8 million tonnes. At the current run-rate, annual production is on course to reach approximately 47.7 million tonnes — well above the widely referenced 45 million tonne capacity ceiling — suggesting that capacity replacement quotas and operating-capacity management will tighten further in Q4. Meanwhile, operating rates in Yunnan remain elevated during the hydropower peak season, while Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia smelters continue to run near full capacity. The World Bank notes that with China accounting for roughly 60% of global primary aluminium output, any enforcement action on the cap would immediately tighten global supply.

中文

国家统计局10月15日公布的数据显示，2026年9月中国电解铝产量达402万吨，同比增长3.1%，1-9月累计3580万吨。按当前运行速率，全年产量有望达约4770万吨——明显高于市场普遍引用的4500万吨产能上限——这意味着四季度产能置换指标和运行产能管理将进一步收紧。同时，云南水电丰水期开工率保持高位，新疆和内蒙古冶炼厂继续接近满负荷运行。世界银行指出，鉴于中国约占全球原铝产量的60%，任何针对上限的执行行动都将立即收紧全球供应。

China Post-Holiday Spot: Yangtze A00 Averages RMB 23,980/t; Solar and EV Profile Orders Firm

中国节后现货：长江A00铝均价23980元/吨；光伏与车用型材订单稳健

EN

Domestic spot markets firmed through mid-October: Yangtze A00 aluminium averaged approximately RMB 23,980 per tonne for the week of October 12-16, up roughly 1.2% from the pre-holiday level. Fabricators report healthy order books in solar panel frame and new-energy-vehicle body profiles, while construction-system profiles remain selective amid ongoing property-sector adjustment. Processing fees for industrial profiles held stable, with several producers reporting full order coverage through November. Alumina costs continue to provide comfortable smelter margins: domestic alumina prices held near RMB 2,750/t, keeping the alumina-to-aluminium cost ratio around 11.5%. Market participants are watching the Q4 capacity-management notices from the NDRC for direction on both supply and sentiment.

中文

国内现货市场10月中旬走强：10月12-16日当周长江A00铝均价约23980元/吨，较节前上涨约1.2%。加工企业反馈光伏边框和新能源车车身型材订单健康，而受房地产行业持续调整影响，建筑系统型材订单仍偏谨慎。工业型材加工费持稳，部分厂家报告订单已排满至11月。氧化铝成本继续为冶炼厂提供舒适利润：国内氧化铝价格维持在2750元/吨附近，氧化铝对电解铝成本比保持在约11.5%。市场参与者正关注发改委四季度产能管理通知，以判断供应与情绪方向。

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