Weekly Industry Intelligence

每周行业情报

Week 41 Aluminum Industry Hotspots

第41周铝型材行业热点清单

October 5 – October 11, 2026

LME Aluminum Rallies to $3,148.50/t Oct 6, Then Retreats to ~$3,055 by Oct 9

LME铝价10月6日反弹至3148.50美元/吨，随后回落至10月9日约3055美元

EN

LME aluminum showed volatile price action through the week of October 5-9: Oct 5 (cash $3,117.50/t, 3-month $3,118.00), Oct 6 ($3,148.50/$3,146.90 — the weekly peak), Oct 7 ($3,112.80/$3,113.00), Oct 8 ($3,117.25/$3,068.60), Oct 9 ($3,055.65 per Trading Economics, +0.47% daily). The October 6 peak of $3,148.50/t represented a brief recovery from the October 2 low of $3,097.50, but prices subsequently gave back gains as profit-taking persisted. Over the past month, aluminum has fallen 6.83%, though it remains 11.13% higher than a year ago. Trading Economics forecasts the price to reach $3,150.80/t by quarter-end and $3,318.66/t in 12 months. The historic March 2022 all-time high of $4,103/t still stands 26% above current levels.

中文

LME铝价在10月5-9日当周呈现波动走势：10月5日现货3117.50美元/吨、3月期货3118.00美元，6日3148.50/3146.90美元（周高点），7日3112.80/3113.00美元，8日3117.25/3068.60美元，9日Trading Economics报3055.65美元/吨（+0.47%日涨）。10月6日峰值3148.50美元/吨代表了从10月2日低点3097.50美元的短暂回升，但随后价格在获利了结压力下回吐涨幅。过去一个月铝价下跌6.83%，但同比仍高11.13%。Trading Economics预测季度末3150.80美元/吨，12个月后3318.66美元/吨。2022年3月历史高点4103美元/吨仍较当前水平高26%。

Australia and Tasmania Invest A$200M to Secure Bell Bay Aluminium Smelter

澳大利亚和塔斯马尼亚州投资2亿澳元保住Bell Bay铝冶炼厂

EN

On October 1, 2026, the Australian federal government and the Tasmanian state government jointly announced a A$200 million investment over five years to secure the future of the Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Northern Tasmania. The agreement supports 550 direct workers and approximately 1,000 indirect jobs across the region. Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff and Minister for Energy Nick Duigan stated that the investment will boost regional jobs while strengthening national sovereignty and Australia’s ongoing aluminium production capability. The Bell Bay smelter is a major contributor to Tasmania’s industrial and manufacturing sectors. The Tasmanian Government’s Northern Economic Plan identifies Bell Bay as uniquely positioned to support the next phase of Northern Tasmania’s economic development as a leading industrial and clean energy precinct.

中文

2026年10月1日，澳大利亚联邦政府和塔斯马尼亚州政府联合宣布，将在五年内投资2亿澳元以保住塔斯马尼亚北部Bell Bay铝冶炼厂的未来。该协议支持550名直接工人和该地区约1000个间接就业岗位。塔斯马尼亚州州长Jeremy Rockliff和能源部长Nick Duigan表示，这项投资将促进地区就业，同时加强国家主权和澳大利亚持续的铝生产能力。Bell Bay冶炼厂是塔斯马尼亚工业和制造业部门的主要贡献者。塔斯马尼亚州政府《北部经济计划》将Bell Bay定位为支持塔斯马尼亚北部下一阶段经济发展的独特位置，作为领先的工业和清洁能源 precinct。

US ITC Final Affirmative: Chinese Van Trailers Injure US Industry; AD/CVD Orders to Issue

美国ITC终裁：中国厢式拖车损害美国产业；反倾销/反补贴令即将发布

EN

On September 25, 2026, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) issued a final affirmative determination that imports of van-type trailers and subassemblies from China materially injure the US industry. The vote followed the US Department of Commerce’s August 26, 2026 final findings of dumping at 130.86% and countervailable subsidies at 134.75%. Commerce will now issue antidumping and countervailing duty orders. Trailers assembled in Canada from Chinese subassemblies are treated as Chinese products and subject to the China duties. Additionally, Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs continue to apply to imported trailers at 25% of full declared value (since April 6, 2026), stacking on top of AD/CVD duties. For Canada and Mexico, preliminary affirmative determinations have been issued, with final Commerce determinations expected around December 17, 2026.

中文

2026年9月25日，美国国际贸易委员会（ITC）发布终裁肯定性裁定，认定从中国进口的厢式拖车及组件对美国产业造成实质性损害。该裁定紧随美国商务部2026年8月26日关于倾销130.86%和可抵消补贴134.75%的终裁结论。商务部现将发布反倾销和反补贴税令。在加拿大用中国组件组装的拖车被视为中国产品，需缴纳中国关税。此外，232条款钢铝关税继续适用于进口拖车，按全部申报价值的25%征收（自2026年4月6日起），叠加在反倾销/反补贴税之上。对加拿大和墨西哥，已发布初步肯定性裁定，商务部终裁预计约2026年12月17日。

China Issues Anti-Involution Policies for Nonferrous Sector; Output Growth Target 5%

中国发布有色金属行业"反内卷"政策；产出增长目标5%

EN

In October 2026, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued a notice on governing disorderly price competition and maintaining healthy market price order. The notice proposes measures including investigating and assessing industry average costs, strengthening price supervision, and standardizing bidding and tendering behavior. Separately, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other ministries jointly issued the Nonferrous Metals Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026), targeting average annual growth of the nonferrous metals industry value-added at approximately 5% and average annual growth of the ten major nonferrous metals output at approximately 1.5%. Progress has been made in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium.

中文

2026年10月，中国国家发展和改革委员会与市场监管总局联合印发《关于治理价格无序竞争维护良好市场价格秩序的公告》，提出调研评估行业平均成本、加强价格监管、规范招标投标行为等措施。另外，工信部等八部门联合印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026年)》，提出有色金属行业增加值年均增长约5%、十种有色金属产量年均增长约1.5%的目标。铜、铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展。

Rusal Signs New Heat Supply Contract with En+ Associate; Board Meeting Oct 12

俄铝与En+关联方签署新供暖供应合同；董事会会议10月12日

EN

On September 29, 2026, United Company Rusal announced that a member of the Group had entered into a new heat supply contract with an associate of En+, pursuant to which the En+ associate agreed to supply heat energy to the Group member. This follows a series of previously disclosed heat supply contracts between Rusal Group companies and En+ associates dating back to December 2023. On October 6, Rusal announced that its Board of Directors would hold a meeting on October 12, 2026 to consider a matter in accordance with HKEx requirements in relation to connected transactions. The continued operational interdependence between Rusal and En+ (its major power supplier) remains a key corporate governance focus for investors.

中文

2026年9月29日，俄铝联合公司公告，集团某成员公司与En+的关联方签署了新的供暖供应合同，该En+关联方同意向集团成员供应热能。这追溯至2023年12月以来一系列已披露的俄铝集团与En+关联方之间的供暖供应合同。10月6日，俄铝公告董事会将于2026年10月12日举行会议，审议根据港交所要求有关关联交易的事项。俄铝与En+（其主要电力供应商）之间持续的运营相互依存关系，仍然是投资者关注的关键公司治理焦点。

Global Aluminum Plate Market to Reach $52.95B by 2035 at 5.1% CAGR

全球铝板市场预计2035年达529.5亿美元，CAGR 5.1%

EN

According to a MarketsandMarkets report released October 2026, the global aluminum plate market is projected to grow from $32.71 billion in 2026 to $52.95 billion by 2035, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1%. Growth is driven by increasing demand for lightweight, durable, and corrosion-resistant materials across aerospace & defense, transportation, marine, construction, machinery, and industrial applications. Key drivers include rising aircraft production, electric vehicle adoption, infrastructure development, renewable energy investments, and the growing focus on lightweighting and fuel efficiency. The report segments the market by alloy type (1xxx, 3xxx, 5xxx, 6xxx, 7xxx, 8xxx series), thickness, application, and region.

中文

据MarketsandMarkets 2026年10月发布的报告，全球铝板市场预计从2026年的327.1亿美元增长至2035年的529.5亿美元，复合年增长率（CAGR）5.1%。增长由航空航天与国防、交通运输、船舶、建筑、机械和工业应用领域对轻量化、耐用和耐腐蚀材料日益增长的需求驱动。关键驱动因素包括飞机产量上升、电动汽车普及、基础设施发展、可再生能源投资以及对轻量化和燃油效率的日益关注。报告按合金类型（1xxx、3xxx、5xxx、6xxx、7xxx、8xxx系列）、厚度、应用和地区进行市场细分。

Australia REQ Confirms Al Forecast: $3,335/t (2026), $3,210/t (2027); Alumina $360/t

澳大利亚REQ确认铝预测：3335美元(2026)、3210美元(2027)；氧化铝360美元

EN

The Australian Government’s Resources and Energy Quarterly (October 2026) reaffirmed its forecast for the LME aluminum price to average $3,335 per tonne in 2026 and $3,210 per tonne in 2027, with the 2028-2031 average at $2,900/t (real terms). The report states that aluminum’s fundamentals remain supportive, with low stocks and market deficits in both 2026 and 2027. Further out, prices will be supported by higher demand for AI infrastructure buildout and the energy transition. The alumina price is projected to remain around $360 per tonne in real terms. Australia’s aluminum and bauxite export earnings are projected to increase from $14 billion in 2025-26 to $19 billion (real terms) in 2030-31. An improved outlook for primary aluminum production in the Middle East has lifted the alumina price forecast.

中文

澳大利亚政府《资源与能源季度报告》（2026年10月）重申其预测：LME铝价2026年均3335美元/吨、2027年3210美元/吨，2028-2031年均2900美元/吨（实际值）。报告指出铝基本面仍然支撑价格，2026和2027年库存偏低且市场处于赤字。远期来看，人工智能基础设施建设和能源转型带来的更高需求将支撑价格。氧化铝价格预计在展望期内维持在约360美元/吨（实际值）。澳大利亚铝和铝土矿出口收入预计从2025-26年的140亿美元增至2030-31年的190亿美元（实际值）。中东原铝产量前景改善提升了氧化铝价格预测。

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