Weekly Industry Intelligence

每周行业情报

Week 40 Aluminum Industry Hotspots

第40周铝型材行业热点清单

September 28 – October 4, 2026

LME Aluminum Falls to $3,097.50/t by Oct 2; Quarterly Correction Deepens

LME铝价10月2日跌至3097.50美元/吨；季度回调加深

EN

LME aluminum suffered a sharp four-day decline through late September and early October: Sep 28 ($3,248/t, -0.90%), Sep 29 ($3,213.50/t, -1.06%), Sep 30 ($3,170/t, -1.35%), Oct 1 ($3,119/t, -1.61%), Oct 2 ($3,097.50/t). The cumulative drop from the Sep 25 close of $3,277.50/t to the Oct 2 close of $3,097.50/t represents a $180/t (5.5%) correction in just one week. The sell-off reflects profit-taking after the mid-September rally toward $3,350 resistance, combined with concerns over slowing Chinese demand post-Golden Week and a firmer US dollar. LME warehouse stocks continued their historic drawdown to approximately 241,375 tonnes on Sep 25 — a 36-year low. The cash-to-three-month spread remains in modest contango at $13/t, suggesting the market does not yet foresee an acute squeeze despite the ultra-low inventory levels.

中文

LME铝价在9月底至10月初经历四连跌：9月28日3248美元/吨（-0.90%）、29日3213.50美元/吨（-1.06%）、30日3170美元/吨（-1.35%）、10月1日3119美元/吨（-1.61%）、10月2日3097.50美元/吨。从9月25日收盘3277.50美元/吨至10月2日收盘3097.50美元/吨，累计下跌180美元/吨（5.5%），仅用一周。抛售反映了9月中旬冲击3350美元阻力位后的获利了结，叠加国庆后中国需求放缓担忧和美元走强。LME仓库库存9月25日继续历史性去化至约241375吨——36年低点。现金对三个月价差维持约13美元/吨的温和正向结构，表明尽管库存极低，市场尚未预见急性挤压。

ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.5% in September; Aluminum Prices Up for 34 Consecutive Months

ISM制造业PMI 9月54.5%；铝价连续34个月上涨

EN

The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI registered 54.5% in September 2026, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. The Prices Index surged to 77.9% — up 6.8 percentage points from August’s 71.1% and close to its March level (78.3%) at the beginning of the Iran war. Aluminum has now been listed as "Up in Price" for 34 consecutive months and remains in "Short Supply" alongside aluminum products, copper, steel, and electronic components. ISM’s Spence noted: "The Prices Index is driven by (1) increases in steel and aluminum prices that impact the entire value chain, (2) tariffs applied to many imported goods, and (3) increases in petroleum-based products as a result of the Middle East conflict." Higher prices were reported by 58.6% of respondents in September, up 12.4pp from August’s 46.2%.

中文

供应管理协会（ISM）制造业采购经理人指数9月录得54.5%，表明制造业持续扩张。价格指数飙升至77.9%——较8月71.1%上升6.8个百分点，接近伊朗战争开始时3月的水平（78.3%）。铝现已连续34个月被列入"价格上涨"商品，并继续与铝制品、铜、钢和电子元器件一起处于"供应短缺"状态。ISM的Spence指出："价格指数由三因素驱动：（1）影响整个价值链的钢铁和铝价格上涨，（2）对许多进口商品征收的关税，以及（3）中东冲突导致的石油类产品价格上涨。"9月58.6%的受访者报告价格上涨，较8月46.2%上升12.4个百分点。

Australia REQ: LME Al Forecast $3,335/t in 2026, $3,210/t in 2027; Alumina at $360/t

澳大利亚REQ：LME铝2026年预测3335美元/吨，2027年3210美元/吨；氧化铝360美元/吨

EN

The Australian Government’s Resources and Energy Quarterly (September 2026) forecasts the LME aluminum price to average $3,335 per tonne in 2026 and $3,210 per tonne in 2027, with the 2028-2031 average at $2,900/t (real terms). The report notes that aluminum’s fundamentals remain supportive, with low stocks and market deficits in both 2026 and 2027. Further out, prices will be supported by higher demand for AI infrastructure buildout and the energy transition. The alumina price is projected to remain around $360 per tonne in real terms over the outlook period. An improved outlook for primary aluminum production in the Middle East has lifted the alumina price forecast for 2026-2027. Australia’s aluminum and bauxite export earnings are projected to increase from $14 billion in 2025-26 to $19 billion (real terms) in 2030-31.

中文

澳大利亚政府《资源与能源季度报告》（2026年9月）预测LME铝价2026年均3335美元/吨、2027年3210美元/吨，2028-2031年均2900美元/吨（实际值）。报告指出铝基本面仍然支撑价格，2026和2027年库存偏低且市场处于赤字。远期来看，人工智能基础设施建设和能源转型带来的更高需求将支撑价格。氧化铝价格预计在展望期内维持在约360美元/吨（实际值）。中东原铝产量前景改善提升了2026-2027年氧化铝价格预测。澳大利亚铝和铝土矿出口收入预计从2025-26年的140亿美元增至2030-31年的190亿美元（实际值）。

SHFE Opens Alumina and Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures to Qualified Foreign Investors

上期所向合格境外投资者开放氧化铝和铸造铝合金期货

EN

Effective September 28, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) expanded the range of commodity futures and options available to Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFI) and RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFII). Newly added contracts include alumina futures and options, cast aluminum alloy futures and options, butadiene rubber futures and options, and offset printing paper futures and options. The move marks SHFE’s full coverage of all non-ferrous metal options and further internationalizes China’s commodity derivatives market. For the aluminum industry, the inclusion of alumina contracts is particularly significant as it allows global participants to hedge exposure to the key raw material that accounts for roughly 30-40% of primary aluminum production costs.

中文

自2026年9月28日起，上海期货交易所（上期所）扩大合格境外机构投资者（QFI）和人民币合格境外机构投资者（RQFII）可交易的商品期货和期权品种范围。新增品种包括氧化铝期货和期权、铸造铝合金期货和期权、丁二烯橡胶期货和期权以及胶版印刷纸期货和期权。此举标志着上期所实现全部有色金属期权品种全覆盖，并进一步推进中国商品衍生品市场国际化。对铝行业而言，纳入氧化铝合约尤为重要，因为它允许全球参与者对冲约占原铝生产成本30-40%的关键原材料风险敞口。

China August Aluminum Output Hits Record 4Mt (+4.7% YoY); Nearing 45Mt Annual Cap

中国8月铝产量创纪录400万吨（+4.7%）；逼近4500万吨年度上限

EN

China’s aluminum production rose 4.7% year-on-year to nearly 4 million tonnes in August 2026 — a record high — as smelters ramped up output to capitalize on higher export margins amid a global supply shortfall caused by the Middle East conflict. Year-to-date output topped 31 million tonnes, putting production on track to approach the government’s annual capacity cap of approximately 45 million tonnes. The World Bank notes that China’s aluminum output is nearing its self-imposed ceiling, reinforcing constraints on additional production growth. With China accounting for about 60% of global primary aluminum production, the cap limits global expansion. New capacity is increasingly being developed outside China, particularly in parts of Asia with lower power costs, and recycled aluminum makes a growing contribution.

中文

2026年8月中国铝产量同比增长4.7%至近400万吨——创纪录新高——冶炼厂在全球中东冲突造成的供应短缺背景下增产以利用更高的出口利润。年初至今产量超过3100万吨，产量轨迹逼近政府约4500万吨的年度产能上限。世界银行指出，中国铝产量正接近其自我设定的天花板，限制了额外产量增长。由于中国约占全球原铝产量的60%，该上限限制了全球扩张。新增产能越来越多地在中国以外开发，特别是在电力成本较低的亚洲地区，再生铝的贡献也在增长。

Nanning Yuqiang 30Kt/y Coated Copper-Aluminum Foil Phase II Commissioned Sep 28

南宁宇锵年产3万吨涂碳铜铝箔项目（二期）9月28日投产

EN

On September 28, 2026, Nanning Yuqiang New Materials held the commissioning ceremony for its 30,000-tonne-per-year coated copper-aluminum foil project (Phase II) at the Yongning District Industrial Investment Innovation Park. The project targets the fast-growing battery foil market for electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Separately, China’s first domestically developed 60-tonne mobile aluminum billet homogenizing furnace passed acceptance testing on September 28 — a milestone in domestic aluminum processing equipment innovation. These developments underscore China’s continued push into high-value-added aluminum products even as primary smelting capacity approaches its ceiling.

中文

2026年9月28日，南宁宇锵新材料有限公司年产3万吨涂碳铜铝箔项目（二期）投产仪式在邕宁区产投创新产业园举行。该项目瞄准电动汽车和储能系统快速增长的电池箔市场。另外，国内首台自主研发的60吨移动式铝棒均热炉9月28日通过验收——这是中国铝加工装备创新的里程碑。这些进展凸显中国在原铝冶炼产能接近天花板之际，继续向高附加值铝产品推进。

Rotterdam Premium Climbs to $535-560/t; European Duty-Paid All-In Price Near $3,700

鹿特丹溢价攀升至535-560美元/吨；欧洲含税全价接近3700美元

EN

The duty-paid Rotterdam aluminum premium climbed to $535-560 per tonne on September 24, 2026 — up from $505-525/t just one week earlier. With LME cash at $3,254/t on Sep 25, the European all-in duty-paid price approached approximately $3,700-3,800/t. The premium surge reflects tight European physical supply, elevated energy costs, and the impact of CBAM on import competitiveness. Constellium’s Q1 2026 data showed the average Rotterdam premium at $392/t (up 35% YoY), while the average all-in European price reached $3,591/t (up 23% YoY). For comparison, the US Midwest premium averaged $2,296/t in Q1 2026 — up 222% YoY — reflecting the severe impact of Section 232 tariffs on domestic pricing.

中文

2026年9月24日，鹿特丹铝含税溢价攀升至535-560美元/吨——仅一周前为505-525美元/吨。9月25日LME现货3254美元/吨，欧洲含税全价接近约3700-3800美元/吨。溢价飙升反映了欧洲实物供应紧张、能源成本高企以及CBAM对进口竞争力的影响。Constellium 2026年一季度数据显示，鹿特丹平均溢价392美元/吨（同比+35%），欧洲平均全价3591美元/吨（同比+23%）。作为对比，美国中西部溢价2026年一季度平均2296美元/吨——同比+222%——反映了232条款关税对国内定价的严重影响。