Weekly Industry Intelligence

每周行业情报

Week 38 Aluminum Industry Hotspots

第38周铝型材行业热点清单

September 14 – September 20, 2026

LME Aluminum Slips to $3,296.50/t on Sep 18; Inventories Stick Near 36-Year Low

LME铝价9月18日跌至3296.50美元/吨；库存维持在36年低点附近

EN

LME aluminum cash settlement fell to $3,296.50 per tonne on September 18, 2026, according to Trading Economics, as inventories remained pinned near their 36-year low of approximately 244,000 tonnes. The price action reflects a market caught between two powerful forces: the structural scarcity narrative (150+ consecutive sessions of inventory drawdown without a single daily build, Russian metal at 60% of available stocks) and profit-taking after the mid-September push toward $3,350-$3,360 resistance. The year-to-date average stands at approximately $3,345/t, with the June 2 peak of $3,855/t still 15.4% above current levels. The December 2027 contract continues to trade at a modest discount to spot, implying the market prices some normalization over the 15-month horizon — but the persistence of sub-250,000-tonne stocks suggests any supply recovery will be slow and uneven.

中文

据Trading Economics，2026年9月18日LME铝现货结算价跌至3296.50美元/吨，库存继续钉在约244000吨的36年低点附近。价格走势反映出市场被两股强大力量拉扯：结构性稀缺叙事（150+连续交易日库存去化无一次增库、俄铝占可用库存60%）与9月中旬冲击3350-3360美元阻力位后的获利了结。年均约3345美元/吨，6月2日峰值3855美元/吨仍较当前水平高15.4%。2027年12月合约继续相对现货小幅折价，表明市场定价了15个月内一定程度的正常化——但库存持续低于25万吨表明任何供应恢复都将缓慢且不均衡。

Jiaozuo Wanfang Terminates RMB 10B+ Restructuring; Sanmenxia Al Deal Off

焦作万方终止百亿级重大资产重组；三门峡铝业收购告吹

EN

On September 14, 2026, Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612.SZ) announced that its board had approved the termination of the acquisition of 99.4375% equity in Cayman Aluminum (Sanmenxia) Co., Ltd. — a deal valued at over RMB 10 billion that would have been one of the largest restructuring transactions in China’s aluminum sector. The termination reflects the challenging regulatory and financing environment for large-scale M&A in the domestic metals industry, as well as uncertainty over Sanmenxia’s asset valuation amid volatile alumina prices. Jiaozuo Wanfang had earlier reported strong H1 2026 earnings of RMB 1.17-1.27 billion (+118-137% YoY), making the deal’s collapse a significant strategic setback for its upstream integration ambitions.

中文

2026年9月14日，焦作万方（000612.SZ）公告董事会审议通过终止收购开曼铝业（三门峡）有限公司99.4375%股权——这是一宗估值超百亿元的交易，原本将成为中国铝行业最大重组交易之一。终止反映出国内金属行业大规模并购面临的监管和融资环境挑战，以及氧化铝价格波动下三门峡资产估值的不确定性。焦作万方此前公布的2026年上半年业绩强劲，净利润11.7-12.7亿元（同比+118-137%），此次交易告吹对其上游整合雄心构成重大战略挫折。

Nanshan Aluminium H1: Alumina Avg $307/t; Indonesia Smelter Eyes Year-End Commissioning

南山铝业上半年：氧化铝均价307美元/吨；印尼冶炼厂瞄准年底投产

EN

Nanshan Aluminium International’s prospectus (filed August 2026) reveals that global alumina supply recorded an overall surplus in H1 2026, with the average international alumina price falling from $447/t in H1 2025 to $307/t in H1 2026 per LME Platts data. However, the price rebounded significantly from its previous low: the August 1-18 average stood at approximately $348/t, indicating a clear bottoming-out trend. The company’s Indonesia electrolytic aluminum project in North Kalimantan — with a design capacity of 500,000 tonnes per year — is expected to begin operations by year-end, making it one of the most closely watched new supply additions globally. Nanshan noted that if international alumina prices sustain their upward momentum, revenue and profit margins of its alumina segments are expected to improve.

中文

南山铝业国际控股有限公司招股书（2026年8月递交）显示，2026年上半年全球氧化铝供应整体过剩，据LME Platts数据国际氧化铝均价从2025年上半年的447美元/吨降至2026年上半年的307美元/吨。然而价格从前期低点显著反弹：8月1-18日均价约348美元/吨，呈现明显触底回升趋势。公司位于印尼北加里曼丹的电解铝项目——设计产能50万吨/年——预计年底投产，成为全球最受关注的新增供应之一。南山表示，若国际氧化铝价格维持上行势头，其氧化铝板块收入和利润率有望改善。

USGS: US Aluminum Tariffs Hit 50% in June; 400+ New Codes Added in August

USGS：美国铝关税6月升至50%；8月新增400+关税代码

EN

The USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 report confirms that in March 2026, the United States imposed a 25% tariff on aluminum and derivative products under Section 232, ending all country-specific exemptions. By June, tariffs doubled to 50% ad valorem for most countries (the United Kingdom remained at 25%). In August, over 400 additional aluminum-related tariff codes were added, with tariffs applying only to the aluminum content of those products. Meanwhile, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on US steel and aluminum products effective September 8, 2026, raising existing rates and adding new categories including seafood, wood, furniture, and appliances. The escalating tariff war is reshaping global aluminum trade flows and accelerating supply-chain regionalization.

中文

美国地质调查局2026年矿产摘要确认，2026年3月美国根据232条款对铝及铝制品征收25%关税，终止所有国别豁免。到6月，对大多数国家的关税翻倍至50%从价税（英国维持25%）。8月，新增400多个铝相关关税代码，关税仅适用于这些产品的铝含量。与此同时，加拿大宣布9月8日起对美国钢铝产品提高报复性关税，提高现有税率并新增海鲜、木材、家具和家电等品类。关税战升级正在重塑全球铝贸易流向并加速供应链区域化。

Guangxi 15th FYP: Aluminum Chain as Flagship; Overseas + Baise Bauxite Synergy

广西十五五：铝产业链为旗舰；海外+百色铝土矿协同

EN

At a September 14 State Council press conference on the 15th Five-Year Plan, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region highlighted the aluminum industry chain as a flagship example of its development strategy. The region plans to leverage both overseas and domestic Baise bauxite resources, processing them into alumina and then into new-energy vehicle components and high-end manufacturing bases. This upstream-downstream integration model — from bauxite mining to finished aluminum products — is being promoted as a template for other resource-based provinces. Guangxi’s approach combines raw material security (domestic Baise deposits) with overseas sourcing diversification, reducing dependence on any single supply origin.

中文

9月14日国务院"十五五"系列主题新闻发布会上，广西壮族自治区以铝产业链作为发展旗舰范例。该地区计划依托海外和国内百色铝土矿资源，加工成氧化铝，再进一步加工成新能源汽车零部件和高端制造基地。这种从铝土矿开采到成品铝制品的上游-下游一体化模式，正被推广为其他资源型省份的样板。广西策略将原料安全（国内百色矿藏）与海外采购多元化相结合，减少对任何单一供应来源的依赖。

China Carbon Market: 3680 Entities Cover 8.3Bn Tonnes; Aluminum Included

中国碳市场：3680家重点排放单位覆盖83亿吨；铝冶炼纳入

EN

As of September 14, 2026, China’s carbon market had recorded cumulative trading volume of 973 million tonnes of carbon allowances with total turnover of RMB 66.886 billion. In 2026, four industries — power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting — were included as key emission entities, totaling 3,680 companies covering approximately 8.3 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions (over 65% of China’s total carbon emissions). Preparatory work has begun to incorporate petrochemicals, chemicals, paper, and civil aviation into the carbon trading market. Professor Zhang Xiliang of Tsinghua University noted that green transition has shifted from an "optional" strategy to a "mandatory" competitive requirement, and China’s carbon market could contribute over 70% of national emission reductions during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

中文

截至2026年9月14日，中国碳市场碳配额累计成交9.73亿吨，累计成交额668.86亿元人民币。2026年，发电、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼四个行业纳入重点排放单位，共计3680家，覆盖二氧化碳排放量约83亿吨，占中国碳排放总量的65%以上。石化、化工、造纸、民航等行业纳入碳排放权交易市场的前期准备工作已启动。清华大学张希良教授表示，绿色转型已从"可选项"变为关乎竞争力的"必答题"，中国碳市场在"十五五"期间可贡献全国70%以上减排量。

Alumina Price Rebounds to $348/t; Bottoming-Out Trend Confirmed

氧化铝价格反弹至348美元/吨；触底回升趋势确认

EN

According to Nanshan Aluminium’s prospectus citing LME Alumina (Platts) data, the average international alumina price for August 1-18, 2026 stood at approximately $348 per tonne — a significant rebound from the H1 2026 average of $307/t and the Q2 2026 low. The recovery is driven by several factors: persistently declining overseas electrolytic aluminum inventories creating restocking demand, market pricing in expectations of a tightening medium-term supply-demand balance, and production disruptions including Rusal’s Friguia rail outage and Guinea’s bauxite export restrictions. If the upward momentum sustains, smelter margins could narrow from their current comfortable levels, potentially altering the incentive structure for capacity restarts — a key variable for the Q4 2026 price outlook.

中文

据南山铝业招股书引用的LME氧化铝（Platts）数据，2026年8月1-18日国际氧化铝均价约348美元/吨——较2026年上半年均价307美元/吨和二季度低点显著反弹。回升由多因素驱动：海外电解铝库存持续下降带来补库需求、市场定价中期供需趋紧预期、以及俄铝Friguia铁路中断和几内亚铝土矿出口限制等生产扰动。若上行势头维持，冶炼利润可能从目前宽裕水平收窄，潜在改变产能复产的激励结构——这是2026年Q4价格展望的关键变量。

China Factory

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Building the Future with Aluminum Excellence

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