Weekly Industry Intelligence

每周行业情报

Week 36 Aluminum Industry Hotspots

第36周铝型材行业热点清单

August 31 – September 6, 2026

LME Price Reclaims $3,300/t; Stocks Fall to 245,975t — Fresh Record Low

LME铝价重回3300美元/吨；库存降至245975吨再创新纪录低点

EN

LME aluminum rallied into September with four consecutive weekly gains: Sep 1 (cash $3,261.00/t, +0.94%), Sep 2 ($3,255.50/t), Sep 3 ($3,303.00/t), Sep 4 (closed $3,296/t after touching $3,321 intraday). The September 3 official LME cash settlement of $3,260.50-$3,261.00/t confirmed the uptrend. Warehouse stocks set fresh record lows every session: Sep 1 (246,725t), Sep 2 (246,225t), Sep 3 (245,975t) — now 51.7% below the January 2 level of 509,250 tonnes and the lowest since the 1980s on Reuters long-run data. The December 2027 contract bid climbed to $3,175/t (+0.7% on Sep 1), signaling the market expects tightness to persist well into next year.

中文

LME铝价以连续上行姿态进入9月：9月1日现货3261.00美元/吨（+0.94%）、9月2日3255.50美元、9月3日3303.00美元、9月4日收报3296美元/吨（盘中触及3321美元）。9月3日LME官方现货结算价3260.50-3261.00美元/吨确认了上行趋势。仓库库存每个交易日都在刷新纪录低点：9月1日246725吨、9月2日246225吨、9月3日245975吨——较1月2日的509250吨下降51.7%，按路透社长期数据为20世纪80年代以来最低。2027年12月合约买入价攀升至3175美元/吨（9月1日+0.7%），表明市场预计紧张格局将持续到明年。

Citibank Turns Bullish: $3,600/t Short-Term Target, $4,000 Extreme Case

花旗转看多：短期目标3600美元/吨，极端情形4000美元

EN

In a September 1 market outlook, Sook Trading summarized the analyst landscape: Citibank is bullish with a short-term target of $3,600/t and an extreme case of $4,000/t, driven by the lowest LME stocks in 36 years. CRU and Fitch Ratings hold a neutral 12-month forecast of $3,308/t, noting the price floor has been permanently lifted by EV and clean-energy demand. The September LME 3-month forecast range: resistance $3,380-$3,450/t (a breakout could reach $3,500-$3,600), support $3,140-$3,180/t with a psychological floor at $3,000. Japan MJP premiums settled Q3 at $395/t — the highest in 11 years — with Q4 forecast to ease to $280-$320/t as Indonesian supply arrives. CIF cost at Asian ports now stands near $3,616/t.

中文

9月1日市场展望中，Sook Trading总结了分析师格局：花旗看多，短期目标3600美元/吨，极端情形4000美元/吨，由36年最低的LME库存驱动。CRU和惠誉评级持中性立场，12个月预测3308美元/吨，指出价格底部已被电动汽车和清洁能源需求永久性抬升。9月LME三个月期货预测区间：阻力3380-3450美元/吨（突破后可至3500-3600美元），支撑3140-3180美元/吨，心理底部3000美元。日本MJP升水三季度结算395美元/吨——11年来最高——预计四季度随印尼供应到港回落至280-320美元/吨。亚洲港口CIF成本现约3616美元/吨。

Indonesia Expands Aluminum Output on Middle East Disruption — Coal-Powered Smelters

印尼扩产铝以应对中东供应中断——煤电驱动新冶炼厂

EN

Reuters reported September 2 that resource-rich Indonesia is expanding aluminum production to counter supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflict. The country is relying on abundant coal reserves to power newly built smelters — a strategy that runs counter to carbon-emission curbs but fills a genuine market gap. With global 2026 electrolytic aluminum capacity at roughly 77.16 million tonnes and China near its ceiling at 99% utilization, Indonesia is the decisive swing supplier: KAI, Nanshan and other projects are expected to bring meaningful volume only from H2 2027. In the interim, every delayed restart in the Gulf (EGA targeting Q1 2027 after a $400M repair) tightens the scarcity premium embedded in the Q4 base-case forecast of $3,600/t.

中文

路透社9月2日报道，资源丰富的印尼正在扩大铝产量，以应对中东冲突造成的供应中断。该国依赖丰富的煤炭储量为新建冶炼厂供电——这一策略与遏制碳排放的努力背道而驰，但填补了真实的市场缺口。随着2026年全球电解铝产能约7716万吨、中国以99%开工率接近天花板，印尼成为决定性的摆动供应商：KAI、南山等项目要到2027年下半年才会带来有意义的产量。在此期间，海湾地区每一次推迟重启（EGA在4亿美元维修后目标2027年一季度复产）都会收紧Q4基准预测3600美元/吨所隐含的稀缺溢价。

IAI: Global Alumina Output Rose to 12.927Mt in July; China at 7.83Mt

国际铝协：7月全球氧化铝产量增至1292.7万吨；中国783万吨

EN

International Aluminium Institute data shows global alumina production reached 12.927 million tonnes in July 2026, with average daily output of 417,000 tonnes — up from 12.513 million tonnes in June. China accounted for an estimated 7.83 million tonnes in July versus 7.58 million tonnes in June. Rising alumina supply keeps the alumina-to-aluminum price ratio near 11%, sustaining wide smelter margins globally and incentivizing restarts — the principal bear-case risk to the scarcity narrative. Domestically, Chinalco Zhengzhou Research Institute gained approval for a postdoctoral research station, and its Academy of Sciences won its first-ever National Natural Science Foundation grant for research on spent cathode carbon in molten-salt electrolysis.

中文

国际铝业协会数据显示，2026年7月全球氧化铝产量达1292.7万吨，日均41.7万吨——高于6月的1251.3万吨。中国7月预估产量783万吨，6月为758万吨。氧化铝供应上升使氧化铝对铝价比维持在约11%，全球冶炼利润保持宽裕并激励复产——这是稀缺叙事的主要熊市风险。国内方面，中铝郑州研究院获批设立博士后科研工作站，中铝科学院首次获得国家自然科学基金资助（熔盐电解下废阴极碳中赋存元素演化与储铝机制研究）。

Mozambique Fullywow Aluminum Ignites Melting and Casting Line

莫桑比克富丽华铝业熔铸生产线点火开工

EN

FULLYWOW ALUMINUM, LDA successfully ignited its melting and casting production line in Mozambique on September 1, marking the formal entry into hot commissioning of a modern aluminum alloy profile production base in the country. The project represents continued Chinese-led investment in African downstream aluminum capacity, complementing upstream bauxite positions in Guinea. Meanwhile, Chinese equipment exports continue gaining ground: Langdun Technology commissioned a self-developed 38-tonne batch homogenizing furnace at a major Indian aluminum company in late August.

中文

莫桑比克（富丽华）铝业有限公司熔铸生产线9月1日顺利点火开工，标志着莫桑比克本土现代化铝合金型材生产基地正式迈入热试生产阶段。该项目代表了中国资本在非洲铝下游产能的持续投入，与几内亚上游铝土矿布局形成互补。与此同时，中国装备出口继续拓展：朗盾科技自主研发的38吨批次式均质炉8月下旬在印度某大型铝企正式开机运行。

Qinghai 15th Five-Year Plan Targets Chip-Grade High-Purity Alumina

青海"十五五"规划瞄准芯片级高纯氧化铝

EN

Qinghai Province issued its Green Computing Power Industry Development 15th Five-Year Plan on September 2, proposing to extend the electrolytic aluminum industrial base upstream into key component materials — developing high-end fine alumina products for chips such as alumina polishing slurry and high-purity alumina powder for transparent ceramics, and advancing R&D and industrialization of nano-grade ceramic powders and microwave ceramic powders. Separately, Inner Mongolia listed Dongfang Xiwang Baotou Aluminum and Guyang Carbon among 2026 autonomous-region green factories, and Nanlv inaugurated its Green Advanced Aluminum Alloy Materials Research Institute in Fuzhou on August 31.

中文

青海省9月2日印发《绿色算力产业发展"十五五"规划》，提出依托电解铝产业基础向上游元器件关键材料领域延伸布局——发展氧化铝抛光液、透明陶瓷用高纯氧化铝粉等芯片用高端精细氧化铝产品，推动纳米级陶瓷粉体、微波陶瓷粉体等关键材料研发及产业化。另外，内蒙古自治区将东方希望包头铝业、固阳碳素列入2026年自治区绿色工厂名单；南铝绿色先进铝合金材料研究院8月31日在福州高新区正式揭牌。

China Spot Market: Yangtze A00 Aluminum +0.29% WoW; Recycling Network Expands

中国现货市场：长江A00铝周涨0.29%；再生铝回收网络扩容

EN

In the week of August 24-28, Yangtze A00 aluminum rose 0.29% week-on-week, while copper gained 0.85%, zinc +2.52%, lead +1.43%, nickel +0.53%, with only tin down 0.62%. On the recycling front, Jinzhong Jinyuan Renewable Resources established a joint collection station in Shanxi on August 31, advancing the regional scrap aluminum recycling network toward standardization and industrialization. Dongyangguang established a technology holding company in Wuhan with RMB 100 million registered capital. These developments underscore the parallel build-out of China recycled aluminum infrastructure as primary capacity stays capped near 45 million tonnes.

中文

8月24-28日当周，长江A00铝环比上涨0.29%，铜涨0.85%、锌涨2.52%、铅涨1.43%、镍涨0.53%，仅锡下跌0.62%。再生领域，晋中锦源再生资源8月31日在山西落地联合回收站点，推动区域废旧铝资源回收利用向规范化、产业化迈进。东阳光在武汉成立科技控股公司，注册资本1亿元。这些进展凸显在原生铝产能锁定4500万吨天花板附近之际，中国再生铝基础设施正在并行扩容。

China Factory

FOSHAN NANHAI WING HING ALUMINIUM CO., LTD

Building the Future with Aluminum Excellence

以铝之卓越，筑未来之基