Weekly Industry Intelligence

每周行业情报

Week 34 Aluminum Industry Hotspots

第34周铝型材行业热点清单

August 17 – August 23, 2026

LME Inventory Hits Record Low 246,925t; 138 Sessions Without a Build

LME库存创纪录低点246925吨；138个交易日无一次增库

EN

On August 18, 2026, LME aluminum total warehouse stocks fell to 246,925 tonnes — the lowest figure in The Vault Report's archive covering every trading session since January 2, 2008, and by Reuters' longer database the lowest this century. The previous record low was 271,450 tonnes set on August 23, 2022 in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine; that floor fell on July 27, 2026, and every session since has set a new one. The data reveals an extraordinary streak: 138 consecutive trading sessions without a single daily build since February 2, 2026 — comprising 128 falls and 10 flats. The longest comparable run in the entire 19-year archive was 89 sessions (March to July 2016); the current streak is more than half again longer. Stocks have halved this year: from 509,250 tonnes on January 2 to 246,925 tonnes on August 18 — a decline of 262,325 tonnes (51.5%) in under eight months. The last 30 days alone took 11.8%. As Duncan Hobbs of Concord Resources noted, "The aluminium market is so much larger today than it was 25 or so years ago, so LME stocks relative to the market size are very, very low today."

中文

2026年8月18日，LME铝总仓库库存降至246925吨——The Vault Report自2008年1月2日以来覆盖每个交易日的档案中最低数字，按路透社更长的数据库看是本世纪最低。此前的历史低点是2022年8月23日俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后创下的271450吨；该地板于2026年7月27日跌破，此后每个交易日都创下新低。数据揭示了一波非凡的连续：自2026年2月2日以来138个连续交易日无一次每日增库——包括128次下降和10次持平。整个19年档案中最长的可比连续是89个交易日（2016年3月至7月）；当前连续时长是其一倍半以上。库存今年已减半：从1月2日的509250吨降至8月18日的246925吨——不足八个月下降262325吨（51.5%）。仅过去30天就减少了11.8%。正如Concord Resources的Duncan Hobbs所言："今天的铝市场比约25年前大得多，因此LME库存相对于市场规模来说非常非常低。"

LME Price Peaks at $3,373/t Aug 11, Then Corrects to $3,182 by Aug 20

LME铝价8月11日触顶3373美元/吨，随后回调至8月20日3182美元

EN

LME aluminum cash settlement showed a dramatic arc through mid-August: Aug 10 ($3,327.50/t), Aug 11 ($3,373.00/t — the weekly peak), Aug 12 ($3,307.50/t), Aug 13 ($3,279.00/t), Aug 14 ($3,248.00/t), Aug 17 ($3,272.00/t), Aug 18 ($3,219.00/t), Aug 19 ($3,191.50/t), Aug 20 ($3,182.00/t). The $191/t correction from the Aug 11 peak to the Aug 20 close reflects profit-taking after the metal surged into overbought RSI territory (74–76), as noted by Sook Trading's weekly outlook. The forecast for the week of August 17–21 called for an average of $3,280 with a range of $3,210–$3,350, advising traders to "avoid chasing highs" and wait for "buy on dip" opportunities near $3,200–$3,230. The Iran war has wiped out more than 2 million tonnes per year of production capacity, creating a structural supply deficit that underpins prices even during corrections.

中文

LME铝现货结算价在8月中旬呈现戏剧性弧线：8月10日3327.50美元/吨、11日3373.00美元/吨（周峰值）、12日3307.50美元、13日3279.00美元、14日3248.00美元、17日3272.00美元、18日3219.00美元、19日3191.50美元、20日3182.00美元。从8月11日峰值到8月20日收盘的191美元/吨回调反映了铝价冲进超买RSI区间（74-76）后的获利了结，正如Sook Trading周度展望所指出的。8月17-21日当周预测均价3280美元，区间3210-3350美元，建议交易者"避免追高"，等待3200-3230美元附近的"逢低买入"机会。伊朗战争已 wipe out 超过200万吨/年的产能，创造了即使在回调期间也支撑价格的结构性供应缺口。

China July Electrolytic Aluminum Output 3.9Mt (+3.8% YoY); Capacity Nearly Saturated at 99%

中国7月电解铝产量390万吨（+3.8%）；产能利用率近饱和达99%

EN

National Bureau of Statistics data shows China's July 2026 electrolytic aluminum output reached 3.9 million tonnes, up 3.8% year-on-year. Cumulative January-July production was 27.17 million tonnes, also up 3.8%. Total non-ferrous metals output was 6.97 million tonnes (+2.5%), with Jan-Jul cumulative at 48.55 million tonnes (+3.2%). The data confirms that China's electrolytic aluminum capacity is nearly saturated — utilization and operating rates have reached approximately 99%. For the global market, 2026 total electrolytic aluminum capacity is approximately 77.16 million tonnes. China accounts for more than half of global capacity and is nearing its ceiling. Western expansion is constrained, and the Middle East has lost approximately 240,000–280,000 tonnes of annualized capacity due to geopolitical conflict. Indonesia is emerging as the key new supply variable, but short-term actual increments remain limited and will not change the tight balance. Only from H2 2027, as KAI, Nanshan and other projects ramp up, will Indonesia bring meaningful volume to global output.

中文

国家统计局数据显示，2026年7月中国电解铝产量达390万吨，同比增长3.8%。1-7月累计产量2717万吨，同样增长3.8%。十种有色金属总产量697万吨（+2.5%），1-7月累计4855万吨（+3.2%）。数据证实中国电解铝产能已接近饱和——产能利用率和开工率已达约99%。对全球市场而言，2026年电解铝总产能约7716万吨。中国占全球产能过半且已近天花板。欧美扩张受限，中东因地缘冲突损失约24-28万吨年化产能。印尼正成为关键的新供应变量，但短期实际增量有限，难改紧平衡。要到2027年下半年，随着KAI、南山等项目爬产，印尼才会为全球产量带来有意义增量。

Tianshan Aluminum H1 Net Profit RMB 4.177B (+100.44%); Mingtai +49.61%

天山铝业上半年净利润41.77亿元（+100.44%）；明泰铝业+49.61%

EN

Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) reported H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.177 billion — up 100.44% year-on-year. Revenue reached RMB 17.512 billion. Production highlights: electrolytic aluminum 660.5Kt, alumina 1,262.3Kt, power generation 7.2 billion kWh, pre-baked anodes 327.8Kt, high-purity aluminum 12.4Kt, aluminum foil and foil stock 118.1Kt. Mingtai Aluminum (601677.SH) reported H1 operating revenue of RMB 21.119 billion (+24.23%) and net profit of RMB 1.407 billion (+49.61%), attributing the growth to increased production/sales volume and improved product structure. In contrast, Xingfa Aluminum warned that H1 2026 net profit would drop sharply to RMB 165–171 million from RMB 270.9 million a year earlier, citing intensified industry competition and rising raw material prices squeezing margins.

中文

天山铝业（002532.SZ）公布2026年上半年归属股东净利润41.77亿元——同比增长100.44%。收入达175.12亿元。产量亮点：电解铝66.05万吨、氧化铝126.23万吨、发电72亿度、预焙阳极32.78万吨、高纯铝1.24万吨、铝箔及铝箔坯料11.81万吨。明泰铝业（601677.SH）上半年营业收入211.19亿元（+24.23%），净利润14.07亿元（+49.61%），将增长归因于产销量增大和产品结构改善。相比之下，兴发铝业预警2026年上半年净利润将从去年同期2.709亿元大幅降至1.65-1.71亿元，称行业竞争加剧和原材料价格上涨挤压了利润空间。

UC Rusal H1 Revenue $8.338B (+10.9%); Net Profit Swings to $419M from Loss

俄铝上半年收入83.38亿美元（+10.9%）；净利润从亏损转为4.19亿美元

EN

UC Rusal reported H1 2026 revenue of $8.338 billion, up 10.9% from $7.520 billion in H1 2025. Gross profit surged to $2.028 billion (from $1.410 billion). Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.230 billion vs. $748 million, with margin expanding from 9.9% to 14.8%. The company swung from an $87 million net loss to $419 million net profit. Aluminum production rose 4.5% to 2.01 million tonnes. Alumina production increased 7.6% to 3.66 million tonnes, with self-sufficiency reaching 89% following the acquisition of a 26% stake in India's Pioneer alumina refinery. However, value-added output fell to 622 thousand tonnes from 642 thousand tonnes due to deteriorating market conditions. Recurring net profit was $615 million vs. a $16 million loss in H1 2025.

中文

俄铝公布2026上半年收入83.38亿美元，较2025上半年的75.20亿美元增长10.9%。毛利润猛增至20.28亿美元（从14.10亿美元）。调整后EBITDA达12.30亿美元（去年7.48亿美元），利润率从9.9%扩大至14.8%。公司从净亏损8700万美元转为净利润4.19亿美元。铝产量增长4.5%至201万吨。氧化铝产量增长7.6%至366万吨，自给率升至89%，这要归功于收购印度Pioneer氧化铝精炼厂26%股权。然而，由于市场状况恶化，附加值产量从64.2万吨降至62.2万吨。经常性净利润6.15亿美元，而2025上半年为亏损1600万美元。

Shenzhen Nova to Invest RMB 400M in 20Kt/y High-End Al-Based Materials

深圳新星拟投资4亿元建设年产2万吨铝基高端新材料项目

EN

Shenzhen Nova (603978) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Zhejiang Nova Lingchuan New Materials Technology plans to sign an investment agreement with the Yangtze River Delta (Huzhou) Industrial Cooperation Zone Management Committee. The project company will have registered capital of RMB 100 million, with a planned total capacity of 100,000 tonnes of aluminum-based high-end new materials in phases. Phase 1 will invest RMB 400 million to build a 20,000-tonne-per-year demonstration production line for aluminum-based high-end new materials. This follows the broader industry trend of Chinese manufacturers upgrading from commodity aluminum products to high-value-added segments including battery foil, high-purity aluminum, and advanced alloys for automotive and aerospace applications.

中文

深圳新星（603978）公告，全资子公司浙江新星凌川新材料科技有限公司拟与长三角（湖州）产业合作区管理委员会签署项目投资协议。项目公司注册资本1亿元，规划建设10万吨铝基高端新材料，分期建设。第一期投资4亿元，建设年产2万吨铝基高端新材料项目示范生产线。这顺应了中国制造商从大宗商品铝产品向高附加值领域升级的行业大趋势，包括电池箔、高纯铝以及汽车和航空航天用先进合金。

Global Aluminum Extrusion Market Reaches $99.28B in 2026; CAGR 5.1% to 2030

全球铝型材市场2026年达992.8亿美元；至2030年CAGR 5.1%

EN

According to The Business Research Company, the global aluminum extrusion market reached $99.28 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow to $121.21 billion by 2030 at a 5.1% CAGR. Asia-Pacific dominates with over 74% market share. Key growth drivers include: EV lightweighting demand (+1.8% CAGR impact), solar frame expansion (+1.6%), green building facade demand (+1.4%), and grid electrification hardware (+1.1%). The IEA expected global EV sales to exceed 20 million in 2025, while BloombergNEF projects 2026 passenger EV sales at 23.3 million (+11% YoY). Each 15–25 kg increase in extruded aluminum content per EV across incremental output implies several hundred thousand tonnes of additional annual profile demand. MarketsandMarkets forecasts the market at $111.88 billion in 2024, reaching $166.65 billion by 2030 at a 7.0% CAGR.

中文

据The Business Research Company，全球铝型材市场2026年达到992.8亿美元，预计以5.1%的复合年增长率增长至2030年的1212.1亿美元。亚太地区占据超过74%的市场份额。关键增长驱动因素包括：电动汽车轻量化需求（+1.8% CAGR影响）、太阳能边框扩张（+1.6%）、绿色建筑幕墙需求（+1.4%）以及电网电气化硬件（+1.1%）。国际能源署预计2025年全球电动汽车销量超过2000万辆，而彭博新能源财经预测2026年乘用车电动汽车销量达2330万辆（+11%同比）。每辆电动汽车挤出铝含量增加15-25公斤，意味着每年额外增加数十万吨型材需求。MarketsandMarkets预测该市场2024年为1118.8亿美元，2030年达到1666.5亿美元，CAGR 7.0%。

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