Weekly Industry Intelligence

每周行业情报

Week 43 Aluminum Industry Hotspots

第43周铝型材行业热点清单

October 19 – October 25, 2026

LME Aluminum Tests $3,170/t as Stocks Fall Below 235,000t; Drawdown Hits 170 Sessions

LME铝价测试3170美元/吨；库存跌破235000吨，去库存达170个交易日

EN

LME aluminum extended its rebound through the week of October 19-23: Oct 19 (cash $3,152.00/t), Oct 20 ($3,161.25/t, +0.29%), Oct 21 ($3,158.00/t), Oct 22 ($3,166.80/t), Oct 23 ($3,168.50/t). The price has now gained 3.7% from the October 9 low of $3,055.65, and is up 10.9% year-on-year. LME registered stocks fell below 235,000 tonnes for the first time, reaching approximately 233,800 tonnes on October 23 and extending the historic drawdown to more than 170 consecutive sessions without a daily build. The cash-to-three-month spread flipped to a $3/t backwardation, the first since June, signaling acute nearby tightness. Trading Economics projects $3,150.80/t by quarter-end and $3,318.66/t within 12 months. The March 2022 all-time high of $4,103/t still stands 22.8% above current levels.

中文

LME铝价在10月19-23日当周延续反弹：10月19日现货3152.00美元/吨，20日3161.25美元/吨（+0.29%），21日3158.00美元/吨，22日3166.80美元/吨，23日3168.50美元/吨。价格较10月9日低点3055.65美元已累计上涨3.7%，同比高10.9%。10月23日LME注册库存首次跌破235000吨，降至约233800吨，历史级去库存已延续170多个交易日无一日增库。现货对三个月价差转为3美元/吨的现货升水，为6月以来首次，显示近端供应极度紧张。Trading Economics预测季度末3150.80美元/吨，12个月内3318.66美元/吨。2022年3月历史峰值4103美元/吨仍较当前水平高22.8%。

China NDRC Q4 Capacity Management Notice: Aluminium Operating Capacity to Be Cut by ~500Kt

中国发改委四季度产能管理通知：电解铝运行产能压减约50万吨

EN

On October 20, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued its Q4 electrolytic aluminium capacity management notice, requiring provinces to bring operating capacity back in line with the approved capacity-replacement quota system by year-end. The notice implies a reduction of approximately 500,000 tonnes of annualized operating capacity, primarily from smelters in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi that had exceeded their allocated quotas. Compliance inspections begin November 1. With nine-month output already at 35.8 million tonnes and the annualized run-rate (~47.7Mt) exceeding the 45Mt policy ceiling, the notice formalizes the tightening flagged by market participants last week. Analysts expect the cuts to be partially offset by Yunnan’s hydropower-driven output, but the immediate effect is bullish for both SHFE and LME prices.

中文

2026年10月20日，国家发展改革委印发四季度电解铝产能管理通知，要求各省在年底前将运行产能纳入核准的产能置换指标管理体系。通知意味着年化运行产能需压减约50万吨，主要来自内蒙古和广西超出分配指标的冶炼厂。合规检查自11月1日起展开。鉴于前九个月产量已达3580万吨、年化运行速率（约4770万吨）超过4500万吨政策上限，该通知将上周市场预期的收紧措施正式落地。分析师预计减产将部分被云南水电驱动的产出抵消，但其直接效果对沪铝和伦铝均构成利多。

Rusal Q3 2026: Aluminium Sales 2.6Mt at $3,180/t Average; Alumina Self-Sufficiency Holds at 89%

俄铝2026年三季度：铝销量260万吨，均价3180美元/吨；氧化铝自给率维持89%

EN

United Company Rusal reported Q3 2026 operating results on October 21: aluminium sales volume reached 2.6 million tonnes, with an average realized price of $3,180/t — up 9.4% year-on-year. Alumina self-sufficiency held at 89% following the Pioneer refinery stake acquisition in India, insulating the group from Guinea-related feedstock volatility. The company maintained its full-year production guidance of approximately 10.4 million tonnes and confirmed that heat supply contracts with En+ associates, approved by the Board on October 12, secure power costs through 2027. Management noted that the LME inventory drawdown and the first cash backwardation since June validate the company’s view that the market remains structurally undersupplied.

中文

俄铝联合公司于10月21日公布2026年三季度经营业绩：铝销量达260万吨，平均实现售价3180美元/吨，同比上涨9.4%。随印度Pioneer炼厂股权收购完成，氧化铝自给率维持在89%，使集团免受几内亚相关原料波动影响。公司维持全年约1040万吨的产量指引，并确认10月12日董事会批准的与En+关联方供暖合同锁定了直至2027年的电力成本。管理层指出，LME库存持续去化以及6月以来首次出现的现货升水，验证了公司关于市场仍处于结构性供不应求状态的判断。

US Tariff Watch: Commerce Preliminaries on Canada/Mexico Van Trailers Near; Chinese Subassembly Flows Reroute

美国关税动态：加拿大/墨西哥拖车初步裁定临近；中国组件货流改道

EN

With US Commerce final determinations on van trailers from Canada and Mexico expected around December 17, 2026, exporters are actively restructuring supply chains. Preliminary affirmative determinations issued last month confirmed that trailers assembled in Canada from Chinese subassemblies are treated as Chinese products — subject to the China AD/CVD rates (130.86% dumping, 134.75% subsidies) plus the 25% Section 232 tariff. In response, several Chinese trailer-component manufacturers have shifted final assembly to Southeast Asian facilities, while Mexican plants are sourcing more subassemblies from domestic and Turkish suppliers. Trade attorneys note that substantial-transformation analyses will become the central battleground in Q1 2027 enforcement.

中文

随着美国商务部对加拿大和墨西哥厢式拖车的终裁预计于2026年12月17日前后落地，出口商正积极重构供应链。上月发布的初步肯定性裁定确认：在加拿大用中国组件组装的拖车被视为中国产品，需适用中国反倾销/反补贴税率（倾销130.86%、补贴134.75%）外加25%的232条款关税。作为应对，多家中国拖车组件制造商已将最终组装环节转移至东南亚工厂，而墨西哥工厂则更多采用本国和土耳其供应商的组件。贸易律师指出，实质性改变（substantial transformation）分析将成为2027年一季度执法的核心战场。

Guinea CBG Alumina Refinery: DFC Due Diligence Completed; Groundbreaking Expected Q1 2027

几内亚CBG氧化铝炼厂：DFC尽职调查完成；预计2027年一季度奠基

EN

Guinea’s Ministry of Mines announced on October 22 that the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) has completed its due diligence on financing for the Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée (CBG) alumina refinery project, clearing the way for a financing package expected to be signed before year-end. The refinery, with a planned capacity of approximately 2 million tonnes per year, would roughly double Guinea’s domestic alumina processing capacity. Construction is expected to begin in Q1 2027. The project represents the largest Western-backed downstream investment in Guinea’s bauxite sector to date, and a strategic counterweight to Chinese-dominated refining capacity in the region. Bauxite shipments continued at approximately 8 million tonnes per month.

中文

几内亚矿业部10月22日宣布，美国国际开发金融公司（DFC）已完成对几内亚铝土矿公司（CBG）氧化铝精炼厂项目融资的尽职调查，预计融资协议将在年底前签署。该炼厂规划产能约200万吨/年，将使几内亚国内氧化铝加工能力大致翻倍。项目预计2027年一季度开工。这是迄今西方在几内亚铝土矿领域最大的下游投资项目，也是对该地区由中国主导的炼厂产能的战略制衡。铝土矿发运继续保持月均约800万吨的水平。

Nanshan Indonesia 500Kt Smelter Enters Pre-Commissioning; First Metal Expected December

南山印尼50万吨冶炼厂进入预调试阶段；预计12月产出首批铝水

EN

Nanshan Aluminium announced on October 23 that its 500,000-tonne-per-year electrolytic aluminium project in North Kalimantan, Indonesia, has entered the pre-commissioning phase, with first molten aluminium expected in December 2026 — on schedule with the year-end target disclosed in its August prospectus. The project, powered by captive coal-fired generation, is the most significant new supply addition globally this year and a template for Chinese smelting capacity relocating offshore as the domestic 45Mt cap bites. Trial power-on of the first potline was completed on October 18. Market watchers estimate the project will ramp to approximately 60% utilization by Q2 2027, adding meaningful seaborne supply to Southeast Asian markets.

中文

南山铝业10月23日宣布，其位于印度尼西亚北加里曼丹的年产50万吨电解铝项目已进入预调试阶段，预计2026年12月产出首批铝水——与其8月招股书中披露的年底目标一致。该项目采用自备燃煤发电，是今年全球最重要的新增供应，也是国内4500万吨上限约束下中国冶炼产能向海外转移的样板。首条电解槽系列于10月18日完成通电试运行。市场观察人士预计该项目到2027年二季度爬坡至约60%的开工率，为东南亚市场带来可观的增量供应。

China Late-October Spot: Yangtze A00 Crosses RMB 24,000/t; Billet Processing Fees Tick Up

中国十月下旬现货：长江A00铝突破24000元/吨；铝棒加工费小幅上调

EN

Domestic spot markets strengthened further in the week of October 19-23: Yangtze A00 aluminium broke through RMB 24,000 per tonne, averaging RMB 24,120/t for the week, up 0.6% from the previous week. Aluminium billet processing fees in major consumption hubs (Foshan, Wuxi, Nanchang) rose RMB 50-100/tonne as construction-site restocking met tight billet availability. Fabricators report order books for solar frame and NEV profiles covered through December, and several producers announced additional processing-fee increases of RMB 100-200/tonne effective November 1. Alumina prices firmed to RMB 2,820/t on restocking demand, though smelter margins remain wide at current aluminium levels. Traders are positioning for further upside should the NDRC capacity cuts tighten Q4 availability.

中文

国内现货市场在10月19-23日当周进一步走强：长江A00铝突破24000元/吨关口，当周均价24120元/吨，环比上涨0.6。主要消费地（佛山、无锡、南昌）铝棒加工费上调50-100元/吨，建筑工地补库与铝棒供应偏紧形成共振。加工企业反馈光伏边框和新能源车型材订单已排至12月，部分厂家宣布11月1日起加工费再上调100-200元/吨。氧化铝价格在补库需求推动下升至2820元/吨，但按当前铝价冶炼利润依然丰厚。若发改委产能压减导致四季度供应收紧，贸易商正为铝价进一步上行布局。

Hong Kong Company

WING HING WELLKINDS GLOBAL LIMITED

China Factory

FOSHAN NANHAI WING HING ALUMINIUM CO., LTD

Building the Future with Aluminum Excellence

以铝之卓越，筑未来之基